September, a statistically volatile month, begins in Asia Pacific with bags of China down due to data that report the weakness of its economy. in USA, closed today for Labor Day holiday, a decisive week opens to update the narrative of the financial markets and we will understand if the signals that arrived last month that insinuated the idea of a recession, are false or will find continuity.
L'Attention of Wall Street investors has now moved from inflation to employment and this week, Friday will be a key data point: non-farm payrolls for the month of August, expected at 164 thousand units, a clear improvement compared to the previous month. If expectations are confirmed, it cannot be ruled out that the unemployment rate could slow down, deactivating the recessionary signal, what the Fed calls the Sahm rule. The spotlight will also be on purchasing managers data in Europe and the US on the manufacturing and services sectors. The first, in both economic areas, is below 50 points, i.e. in contraction: at the moment both economies are supported by services. On Friday the Dow Jones gained 228,03 points (+0,55%), recording another record close and also updating its intraday record. The S & P 500 rose by 56,44 points (+1,01%), the Nasdaq closed up 197,19 points (+1,13%).
China: Fourth month of economic contraction and stocks fall. Tokyo more lively
La Tokyo Stock Exchange starts the first session of the week on the rise, driven by the progressive devaluation of the yen and the update of the records of the US stock indexes. Japanese companies have increased investments in the second quarter of the year, reaffirming the signs of confidence on the slow recovery of the economy helped by a recovery in domestic demand. Capital spending on goods excluding software rose 1,9% in the three months to June from the previous quarter, the Finance Ministry said overnight. The reading was stronger than the gauge for business investment in GDP data released earlier.
Weak instead the Chinese squares in the wake of the data that arrived between Saturday and last night which showed that China is at a standstill, increasingly in need of government aid to reach the growth rates forecast by the authorities in Beijing. The PMI index manufacturing, released over the weekend, had in fact fallen to 49,1 in August, compared to 49,4 in July and the 49,5 expected by analysts. According to data from the National Statistics Office, this is the fourth month in a row of contraction of the cycle below 50 and the lowest level since February 2024, confirming the persistent Chinese economy difficulties, unable to strengthen the recovery amid weak consumption, deflation risks and a housing market crisis. In a statement on Saturday, NBS analyst Zhao Qinghe attributed the latest contraction to high temperatures, heavy rains and a seasonal slowdown in production in some sectors. The private manufacturing purchasing managers' index, on the other hand, is more buoyant Caixin which covers mostly smaller export-oriented firms, rose to 50,4 in August from 49,8 in July, beating economists' forecasts and the 50-point threshold. As for services, meanwhile, the non-manufacturing PMI strengthened to 50,3 from an eight-month low in July (8), beating the previous day's estimate of 50,2. Spotlight on Hong Kong with the Hang Seng Index down 1,62% and the stock of New World Development Co. plunges 14% after the indebted property developer owned by the Cheng family forecast a loss of up to HK$20 billion ($2,6 billion) in the financial year ended June, its first annual loss in two decades, the pressure mounts on Adrian Cheng, the 44-year-old CEO and the third generation to lead the company
Among other variables: eyes on politics in Germany and France
The yield on the 3,90-year Treasury Note is at 2,29%. The yield on the 3,69-year Bund is at 1,10%, while the yield on the 73-year BTP is at 0,7%. The Euro dollar is at 76. Oil: WTI at $2.496, down 0,3%. Brent at $57.700. Gold at $XNUMX, -XNUMX%. Bitcoin at two-week lows at $XNUMX.
On the political front. In Germany, according to the exit polls of ZDF, the parties of the traffic light government led by Olaf Scholz are taking a beating in the regional elections in Thuringia: the chancellor's SPD is at 6,5% (-1,7), the Greens at 4% (-1,2), the liberal FDP 1% (-4). The latter two therefore do not pass the 5% threshold. In France, consultations continue for the search for a prime minister. This morning, in addition to Bertrand Cazeneuve, President Emmanuel Macron will also receive at the Elysée the leader of the Républicains, Xavier Bertrand, whose name has been circulating recently for the post of prime minister. This is what Ansa writes. Bertrand, a man of the social right, a moderate republican, had called, after the legislative elections, for a "government of national emergency".
European stock exchanges: what to follow today
European stock markets, with the absence of Wall Street, are seen little changed. The future on the Eurostoxx50 marks a -0,08%.
Ferrari announced the termination of the partnership with Santander, effective from 31 December 2024, when the three-year contract expires. The partnership, which began in January 2022 after a previous collaboration from 2010 to 2017, has seen Santander alongside the company in the Prancing Horse's sporting activities. Santander has been the Premium Partner of Scuderia Ferrari in Formula 1 and a partner in the Le Mans Hypercar (LMH) programme. Ferrari won the Formula One Grand Prix in Monza yesterday, with Charles Leclerc finishing ahead of favourites Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris in the McLaren.
Leonardo, the sole bidder for the UK's New Medium Helicopter programme, after Airbus and Lockheed Martin confirmed their withdrawal from the competition. Leonardo's UK subsidiary has confirmed to the Financial Times that it has submitted a bid to replace the Air Force's Puma support fleet: it has proposed building the AW149s at its Yeovil manufacturing site in Somerset.
Unieuro. The voluntary public purchase and exchange offer promoted by Fnac Darty and Ruby Equity Investment Sarl on the company's ordinary shares begins; it ends on October 25. The CEO of Fnac Darty, Enrique Martinez, in an interview with Il Corriere della Sera, said that the price of the offer will not be raised. "The value of the offer already incorporates a premium of 42% compared to mid-July, between cash and Fnac Darty shares. For a sector where margins are between 1 and 2%, it seems an adequate value to us," he explained. As for the goal of reaching 90% of adhesions, "we are convinced that our offer is sufficiently attractive for the market. If we want, we can also decide to reduce the threshold. But that is not our goal," he specified.
Saras. Vitol has exceeded the threshold of 95% of the refiner's capital at the end of the mandatory takeover bid reopening period and can therefore exercise the right to purchase the remaining shares.
ivs. Consob has given the green light to the offer document for Grey Sarl's takeover bid on Ivs, which will start on September 9 and end on September 27.
E-Novia. The offering of unexercised rights in the E-Novia capital increase begins today; the offering ends tomorrow, September 3, unless closed early.
Today's macro data
10 hours: 00 XNUMX-XNUMX business days: Manufacturing PMI (expected 45,6 points; previous 45,8 points). Italy: GDP, annual (expected 0,9%; previous 0,7%) and GDP, quarterly (expected 0,2%; previous 0,3%). 11:00 Italy: Producer prices, annual (previous -2,5%) and monthly (previous 0,7%).
