- scenarios change quickly these days on stock markets, like the late summer skies over the Belpaese and the rain of news that fell during the night – relating to a more dovish Fed than previously assumed – was a good fertilizer for the European stock markets. So the continental stock markets are closing in on another positive session today, while Wall Street is on the rise late morning, preparing to close the fourth consecutive session of gains for S & P 500 (+0,56%), especially as US consumer confidence rises in September.
Business Square it appreciates by 0,34% and is the most cautious in comparison with Frankfurt + 1,03% Amsterdam + 0,71% Paris +0,41% and London +0,38%. It breaks away from all Madrid +1,19%, supported by real estate stocks, which in turn were made effervescent by the prospect of monetary training.
On other markets the dollar falls, while the gold grinds records, even exceeding $2583 an ounce.
Odds of a 50-point Fed cut rise
To recap: yesterday the ECB cuts rates by 25 basis points for the second time, a widely expected move that was followed by cautious tones from the president Christine LagardeNext week, the Federal Reserve will decide what to do and the recent macro picture had led to bets on a small cut by Washington too.
A couple of articles came out during the night, on WSJ e FT, however, has changed the scenario and fueled the probability of a 50 basis point cut, which is now playing more or less on equal terms with a 25 basis point cut. The Financial Times in particular he stressed that, no matter what happens, there will be at least the first rate cut after more than four years and a retreat from the current ceiling, the highest level in 23 years. The easing of the restrictions will come seven weeks before the presidential elections and cutting half a percentage point would allow Jerome Powell to bring borrowing costs back to normal levels more quickly, protecting the labor market from further weakness. This thesis was further supported by the words of the influential former Fed official Bill Dudley, according to which there are strong arguments for choosing 50 points.
Gold Rallying, Oil Rebounding on Storm Francine
The debate on next week's Fed meeting will continue to "overwhelm" investors who trust observers a little and fear being disappointed a little. In any case, in the meantime, the dollar loses ground, mostly against the yen, against which it loses approximately 0,9% for an exchange rate that is hovering around 140,5.
L'EUR nibbles a few small positions and trades at 1,1088.
The one who gains the most is thegold, boosted by a mix that includes the decline of the greenback, geopolitical uncertainties, the prospect of a rate cut and a retreating inflation. For one reason or another, the precious metal has already earned about 25%. According to what he writes Reuters then it is not only investors who are buying up ingots, but also central banks around the world. Moral: the current snapshot of spot gold prices is 2577,57 dollars per ounce, for an increase of 0,74%, but during the session higher peaks were reached. The December delivery futures are trading at 2605,90 dollars per ounce (+0,98%).
The session also appears to be favourable to the Petroleum, which continues its recovery after storm Francine hit the southern United States and knocked out some platforms. WTI and Brent contracts are gaining about 1,5%, for prices near $70 and $73 respectively.
Piazza Affari, Iveco doing well, Unicredit nervous
On the main list of Business Square it is also highlighted today Telecom, +2,41%, after the promotion of Bofa, which sees chances of recovery for the title. At the top of the price list is salt Iveco +2,52%, while following stm, +1,92% and Diasorin +1,91% and marks a rebound Amplifon +1,58%. Among energy stocks, the most notable is Eni +1,14%, down instead Tenaris -0,7%. Leonardo, +1,07%, has been in the top ten for a few days, with the increasing tone on the war in Ukraine and the probable green light for Kiev to use Western instruments to strike Russia.
Among the declines, the most resounding thud was that of Campari, -5,64%.
It also goes down nexi -2,84% affected by the collapse of French competitor Worldline (-14,12% in Paris) which announced the third cut in guidance for the current year and the departure of the CEO.
Le banks are now more out of the loop compared to the last few days, if it were not for the drop in Unicredit -0,78%, monitored by the market especially after the blitz on Commerzbank (+3,67%). Reuters, citing an anonymous source from the German government, writes that some officials from Berlin have met with representatives of the Italian bank. The German government, in principle, would not be against this marriage, but – the source notes – it will be up to the banks to decide. This is where the problem lies, because “we have to take into account the will of Commerzbank. Of course there is strong hostility from the employees”.
Today among other things the central bank of Russia He also launched a warning to Western banking divisions remaining in the country not to discriminate against their Russian clients by denying them services such as transferring money abroad.
E Unicredit and the Austrian Raiffeisen are the major foreign banks still present in Moscow despite pressure from Western regulators to withdraw.
Declining spreads and yields
The sun of the future seems moderately favorable to the government bonds, after the ECB's move and while waiting for the Fed to loosen its belt a little.
The spread also drops today and yields are falling: the spread between ten-year BTPs and Bunds is falling to 133 basis points, with rates at 3,44% and 2,11% respectively.
