I Friday they often have the taste of dressing up black. And this Friday has all the air of wanting to follow fashion. The concerns on the destabilizing and economically destructive potential of Donald Trump's trade policies have materialized and have hit many areas in the world with stock markets in sharp decline and the sell-offs will probably continue in European trading as well. Naturally, the winner is once again the dollar which is crushing all other currencies. In the field technological, late sales last night on Nvidia still express their perplexity about the high costs of US artificial intelligence compared to that of the Chinese DeepSeek. It remains to think about the next moves of the central banks: Today the Fed's favorite data will be released to read in detail of inflation USA, while next week will be the ECB to open the dance of cuts.
The situation remains in the background Ukraine, on which the eyes of optimists are focused hoping for peace: after the meeting yesterday between Donald Trump British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Ukrainian President expected in Washington today Zelensky for the signing of the agreement on strategic minerals.
Tariffs now have a face and are scary: estimates of a world GDP at -7%
IERI (Yesterday) Europe has, perhaps for the first time, truly realized the significance of the 25% US tax: the actions have collapsed from the peaks and today the futures indicate further losses, while the euro fell to its lowest level in two weeks against the dollar. Donald Trump has pledged that tariffs on Mexico, Canada will come into force next week. According to the European Commissioner Dombrovskis there is a risk of a 7% drop in global GDP. In Canada, the currency's sharp declines show no signs of abating, with a new 3-week low. The market reaction in China threats of an additional 10 percent tariff have been more complicated also because the powerful National People's Congress meets next week and analysts say further stimulus could be imminent.
The biggest currency casualties of Trump's tariff threats on China were the Australian dollar and that new Zealander, which often act as more liquid proxies for the yuan. The yuan itself is rebounding from multi-week lows, with the PBOC setting a slightly higher policy rate for the first time this week, signaling its intention to support the currency.
La South Korea tries to come to terms with the US. The interim president, Choi Sang-mok, spoke tonight via video conference with the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent of trade and the country's contribution to the U.S. economy. The meeting comes on the eve of the start of the process of reviewing U.S.-South Korea trade relations in Washington. Ahn Duk-geun, Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy, flew to America to meet with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
Even the bulls of cryptocurrency have suffered a hard blow, with the bitcoin which briefly fell below $80.000, down 27% from the record high of $109.071,86 reached on January 20.
With Trump’s first month in office focusing more on trade and immigration, his biggest innovations in the crypto space so far have been the $Trump and $Melania meme coins. Easier regulation and even a strategic crypto reserve may still be coming, but it’s clearly not time yet.
Nasdaq Collapses with All Tech Stocks. Nvidia Falls to -8,5% at the End
But Trump's tariff policy could prove to be a boomerang for the US itself: Economists fear damage to growth and inflation. The Wall Street bulletin yesterday evening marked many casualties: starting with the Nasdaq which closed down 2,75% dragged by Nvidia right at the end accelerated the sales and closed at -8,5%. The S&P500 left 1,6% on the ground. While the Dow limited its losses to -0,45%. Some examples: Amazon shows a loss of 2,62%, Intel -1,83% Microsoft -1,80% Modern -7,42% but then Nvidia which loses 8,48%. An index Bloomberg that tracks the seven biggest tech stocks is in correction territory. And an indicator that tracks cryptocurrency stocks has erased its entire so-called “Trump bump.”
La crisis of the Magnificent Seven is leading Wall Street to close the month worse from December 2022. The MF7 index in February is down -10,5%, the Nasdaq is at -5,5%. Paradoxically, Nvidia's monthly balance is unchanged, while it is Tesla (yesterday down 3%) the stock that was hit hard by sales in February: -30%.
I Treasury rose in Asian trade, extending gains for short-term U.S. government debt from the previous session. returns U.S. 10-year yields fell to about 4,23%, a level not seen since December.
The will be published later today PCE deflator, the inflation indicator preferred by the Fed. Traders have gradually increased bets on a dovish Fed, and the two quarter-point rate cuts recently priced into the market now look more likely for June and September.
China hopes for new aid
From Sydney to Tokyo, via Shanghai and Seoul, all the stock markets in Asia Pacific are falling in the wake of the new decline in tech on Wall Street. Shares of Hong Kong slid about 1,7%, while mainland Chinese blue-chip stocks contained their decline to 0,5%. China the wait for the grows meetings behind closed doors of the Chinese leadership next week. The so-called “Two Sessions” of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference will provide an indication of China’s strategic priorities.
They register drops of almost 3% of the Japanese Nikkei and Kospi of Korea of the South. The Tokyo Stock Exchange was further affected by the weight of the yen strong: the traditional safe haven was the only currency to appreciate significantly against the dollar. Inflation in the megalopolis Tokyo slowed more than expected, mainly due to government subsidies to offset energy costs. The data should not dissuade the central bank from considering further increases in its benchmark interest rate.
European stocks seen opening sharply lower. But the month is positive
European stock futures are pointing sharply lower this morning (-1%) even though the conclusion of the month of February the numbers are still positive: faced with the sharp decline of the US Magnificent Seven, the European stock markets can count on a Stoxx 600 index that has so far risen by +3,5%. Our FTSEMIB almost reached +6%, but Madrid fared even better with +7,3%. At a sector level, the most notable ones are Defense/armaments (+ 25%) and banks +(14%). Fincantieri è the star of february with a jump of +30%. From the beginning of 2025 Leonardo gained 45% and Unicredit the 32%.
Banco BPM believes it can achieve "future plans" related to the Anima consolidation plan even with a percentage of ownership of the asset manager's capital, at the end of the takeover bid, equal to at least 45% plus one share. The bank wrote this in an additional note to shareholders in view of the meeting that will have to deliberate on the changes to the takeover bid on Anima, scheduled for today at 10,00:XNUMX. Deutsche Bank held 5,18% of Banco Bpm as of February 19, according to the latest Consob update on significant shareholdings. According to a source, the German bank acted on behalf of Credit Agricole.
Monte dei Paschi. Caltagirone has increased his stake in the bank from 5% to 8%, the website of the bank reported yesterday. The print. Caltagirone and Mps have not commented
Eni Stifel cuts target price. The company aims to achieve “increasingly attractive” shareholder remuneration and indicates in the 2025-2028 strategic plan an overall payout, including dividends and buybacks, of between 35% and 40% of Cffo (Cash Flow From Operations) above the previous range of 30-35%.
Generali The possible advancement of the meeting to April 24 would also imply the advancement of the record date to April 9, writes the Messenger in a critical italic on the proposed change, recalling that Delfin is still waiting for the green light from some countries to be authorized to increase up to 20%. Republic writes that Caltagirone intends to grow beyond the 6,9% he owns and would have reduced the outlay through put & call derivative contracts with Banca Finnat, which would allow him to reduce his shareholding after the meeting. According to Il Sole, the binding agreement with Natixis could arrive “well before the summer”.
nexi closed 2024 with 3,5 billion in total revenues, up 5,1% on an annual basis, and with 1,86 billion in Ebitda (+7,1%), in line with the consensus. The payments company therefore says it has achieved the guidance for 2024 and promises a distribution in terms of return of capital to shareholders of 2025 million for 600. The figure includes "300 million as dividend distribution (0,25 euro dividend per share), growing over time, and approximately 300 million as a share buyback program", says the company's note. Nexi, the note continues, also has the commitment to maintain the status of Investment Grade company, recalling that in December it achieved this status according to Fitch Ratings.
Prysmian Stifel and Barclays cut target prices.
Stellantis It is penalized by the introduction of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Former CEO Carlos Tavares saw his total compensation fall by 37% last year to 23 million euros before unexpectedly resigning last December. The company will start construction of the line for the new Fiat 500 hybrid at the Mirafiori plant in April, with production scheduled to begin in November.
Juventus has forecast for the 2024/2025 financial year an operating result in the break-even range and a significant improvement compared to the previous year after having closed the first half of the year at 31 December with an operating profit of 31,4 million from -82,7 million.
