Of course Fed. What moves the markets is intelligence, not the moves on rates which will not even arrive this evening because President Jerome Powell will at most limit himself to anticipating an expansionary move for next month.
Meanwhile the titles of “Magnificent Seven” that dominate the stock markets score new records, but they disappoint the insatiable Wall Street which is beginning to fear dependence on the records of the patrol (Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) which now represents almost a third of the market.
The confirmation came with the rejection of the capital operation of Tesla: the judge said no to Elon Musk who demanded a bonus of 55 billion dollars. The US stock exchange is no less severe with A è Microsoft: Google's parent company recorded an 11% growth in advertising revenue, above analysts' expectations but, despite strongly growing profits, it leaves 6% on the ground after the stock market. It's not much better Microsoft -2% after revenues increasing by 18% to 62 billion dollars and profits growing by 33% to 21,9 billion, better than forecast. “We have gone from talking about AI to applying AI on a large scale” , the CEO said Satya Nadella, noting that the application of artificial intelligence at every level “is winning us new customers and helping to drive productivity in every sector.”
Analysts JP Morgan they advise you to keep your feet on the ground in fear of bursting of a bubble. But the astonishing progress of investment in Artificial Intelligence is spreading visibly. We started with the revision of the texts and are reaching areas that were unthinkable until yesterday. Microsoft itself had to take action to avoid being overwhelmed by a wave of protests and outcry caused by the publication on X of some sexually explicit images of Taylor Swift created by artificial intelligence.
Flat Europe, Milan aims for new tops
In this climate, the markets are approaching the Fed's verdict without betraying emotions: Wall Street futures in the red -0,5%, European ones flat. The EuroStoxx 50 Index (+3%) reached its highest level in the last 23 years and the Stoxx 600 Index (+1,4%) reached its highest level in two years. It is partly surprising to see the Dax (+1,3%) just a whisker away from its historic record with all the problems that have emerged in recent months for the German economy, for example on the Automotive issue. The group of Wolfsburg plans to postpone plans to seek outside investors for its battery unit amid a cooling electric vehicle market. Meanwhile, the quotation of Ampere, Renault's electricity company. On the contrary, it flies stellantis in the wake of GM's orders and results.
A Milano the FTSEMIB index (+1% in January) came close to a 15-year record on the eve of the quarterly reporting season which promises to be promising. The Ftse index of Italian banks is set to close January at the highest levels since 2016 with +6%.
According to Istat data, the Italian GDP it increased by 0,7% in 2023 compared to +3,7% in 2022. The government estimate contained in the Nadef indicated growth of 0,8%, before the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war. According to the IMF report, our country will grow by 0,7% in 2024 and 1,1% in 2025. .
Bonds slow down in January
Negative January for government bonds, after the best quarter of the last eleven years, at least as regards the ten-year BTP (+8,60%). In January the BTP recorded a loss of 0,8%. Ten-year Treasury Note -0,9%. Bund -1,6%. The greater decline in the Bund also partly explains the fantastic recovery of the spread, which went from 165 to 152 basis points in one month, to the lowest levels since April 2022.
New record for US stock markets
Another record on the United States stock market on the eve of the press conference following the announcements from the Federal Reserve. : Dow Jones +0,35%. Nasdaq -0,8%. S&P500 flat. It should be noted in the USA that at the end of November, there were 8,9 million available places: the consensus did not expect such a robust figure, it estimated 8,75 million. The macroeconomic picture of the United States appears much better than that of the countries of the European Union and the Eurozone in general.
In Asia only China suffers, Sydney at most
The optimism that has pervaded Wall Street has spread to most other stock markets. Index Tokyo Nikkei +0,7%, +7,7% since the beginning of the year. In Japan, both industrial production and retail sales fell short of consensus expectations. The former marked a decline of 0,7% year-on-year. Consumption rose by 2,1% year on year, from +5,4% in November: the consensus was +5%. Kospi of Seoul -0,2%: January is about to close with a drop of 6%. Mumbai's BSE Sensex +0,3% at the start of the session: at these prices, the month ends with a decline of 1%.
The S&P ASX 200 index of Sidney gains 1% and reaches historical highs: +1% monthly performance. The Australian dollar weakens and Australian bond yields fall on the day of the publication of data on consumer prices: in the third quarter, the sequential increase was 0,6%, from +1,2%: the consensus was + 0,8%.
The weak link remains there China. Industrial activity remains in contraction in January despite a tepid improvement in foreign demand. Hang Seng in Hong Kong -1%, -8,7% monthly balance. CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen lists -0,2%: -5,5% per month.
Oil positive in January, gas still down
Brent ($82,70) and WTI ($77,60). Oil is just below yesterday morning's levels and is about to close the first positive month after three months of decline with a progress of around +7,3%. Tensions in the Middle East contributed to lifting prices, which on the other hand were held back by lackluster data from the Chinese economy and the prospect of a slowdown in global demand. Operationality: the short-term picture is strengthening, but has not yet highlighted convincing signs of push, which will only be visible once the 84/80 USD area is exceeded respectively.
Commodity. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is slightly down at 98,60 usd. The recovery of crude oil was not enough to revive the sector's fortunes, because the index is about to close its sixth negative month in a row, albeit with a minimal loss that could be recovered today. In the red since the beginning of the year Aluminum -5%, Steel -4%, Silver -3%, Soya -6%, Wheat -4%. But above all the -18% of US Natural Gas stands out, which combines with -10% of Natural Gas.
Unicredit targets Pop Sondrio and moves to Milan
Unicredit-Pop Sondrio. Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti asked UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel for clarification on a potential interest from Italy's second largest bank in rival Popolare di Sondrio. The minister met Orcel last week, two sources familiar with the matter said. According to rumours, Unicredit intends to invest up to one billion euros in the Scalo Farini real estate development in Milan: the aim is to bring all the staff to a single location and leave the towers of Piazza Gae Aulenti.
Enel. The Fitch agency confirmed the long-term rating at “BBB+” and the short-term rating at “F-2”. The outlook remains “stable”.
Tim. The Treasury and KKR have agreed the terms of the bid KKR will submit for its Sparkle submarine cables unit, three sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.
Pirelli It said it is cooperating fully with the antitrust authority as part of an investigation into alleged price cartels in the tire manufacturing sector and that it has always acted fairly.
Generali will present the new strategic plan at the beginning of next year, said CEO Philippe Donnet during the Investor Day in which management took stock of the 2024 plan and recent acquisitions and announced the launch of a 500 million buyback of euros this year.
Rai Way . The Clearway Capital fund has confirmed that it is a shareholder with a long-term investment perspective.
sapphire closed the last quarter of last year with an increase in net sales, growing at constant exchange rates by 1,7%, but showed a decline in the year as a whole mainly due to the weakness of the North American market.
