The US secretary of state anthony blinken he inaugurated his visit to Beijing with a seven-and-a-half-hour meeting with the foreign minister, Qin gang. A "frank and constructive" talk but which did not bring the two superpowers closer together, whose relations, says China, "remain at an all-time low since 1979". It's a heavy mortgage for the markets: Beijing, in particular, runs the risk of closing a quarter with slightly more than zero growth, jeopardizing the albeit modest objectives for the end of the year (GDP +5%). But also Washington seems to have postponed the end of the credit crunch which is starting to bite the real economy.
The Nikkei loses momentum, a climate of anticipation in China
In this context, the prudence of the gods is not surprising Asian lists who are waiting for energetic interventions to relaunch the Chinese stock market. Pending new interventions on rates, both theHang Seng of Hong Kong -1,5%, which the CSI300 of Shanghai and Shenzhen lists -0,7%. Down also the Kospi of Seoul -0,8%. Stop running in Tokyo on Nikkei -1,2%. In Friday's meeting the Bank of Japan it has been stingy with guidance on future monetary policy routes. It suffers from it yen, at a seven-month low against the dollar. The US chip maker, Intel Corp, will invest 25 billion dollars for a new factory in Israel: it is the largest international investment ever made in the country, underlined Reuters.
Rate hikes are coming in London and Switzerland
Wall Street closed for holidays, the attention of the markets is focused on European lists. European stocks should open lower, in line with Friday's decline in Wall Street: S&P500 -0,4%. EuroStoxx50 index future -0,6%.
Still blowing air of rate hike. During the week, the Bank of England and the Swiss central bank will increase the leverage of the cost of money by a quarter of a point.
Turkish things in sight for Erdogan's bank
But there is a lot of curiosity for the debut of the new one Turkish central bank: Erdogan, having won the elections, intends to change register. A doubling of the cost of money is expected from 4 to 8,5%, the first step to curb inflation at 70%.
Btp in defense of recent records: starting from 4,03%
In this turbulent context, Italy hopes that the honeymoon can continue with the BTP. The spread restarts from 155 basis points, the lowest level since April 2022, it was 192 basis points a month ago. The success of the auction of Btp Value, the Europeanism of the centre-right government, the resilience of the Italian economy, are the main factors that have made our government bonds attractive again.
Il XNUMX-year bund returns from 2,47% yield, the BTP from 4,03%.
Bank of Italy it drastically raised its growth estimates for 2023 to +1,3% from +0,6% indicated in January, while it lowered its estimate of the harmonized inflation rate to +6,1% from +6,5%. Meanwhile, Istat confirmed the May consumer price estimate of +7,60%, from +8,20% in April.
PMI data coming, Germany under observation
The most relevant data of the week will be the release of manufacturing SMEs of the main European economies, expected to verify the seriousness of the industrial crisis, especially in Germany.
THEGerman economy will contract this year and inflation will remain above 2% until at least 2025, the Bundesbank said today in a two-year update of its projections.
The "hawk" attitude of the latest releases of ECB it is reflected in the trend of the euro/dollar cross: 1,093, an exchange rate not seen for over a month.
Wall Street on vacation, then Powell will speak
After today's break, the Fed will return to the protagonist of the financial scene from tomorrow. President Jerome Powell he will speak on Wednesday in the House and on Thursday in the Senate for the usual six-monthly hearing before American parliamentarians. The hearings should not deviate much from what was said on Wednesday at the end of the FOMC. After 10 consecutive rate hikes, the bank stopped reserving the right to evaluate at least two more tightenings by the end of the year.
Thanks to technology, Wall Street is digesting the harsh medicine of rate hikes better than expected.
THES&P500 index managed to close out a fifth straight week of hikes and is now trading higher than on March 16, 2022, the day the Fed initiated its most aggressive hike cycle in forty years.
Oil and gas down
Il Petroleum it lost 1,5% at the start of the session from the +2,4% accumulated last week. Concerns about the stability of Chinese growth are still holding back the climb. For some insiders, OPEC and its allies, including Russia, or OPEC+, will also struggle to get production quotas met.
Il EU natural gas (Amsterdam) on Friday closed down by 15% at 35,0 euro/mWh.
Pirelli after the Golden Power, dividends for Acea, Hera and Iren
Spotlight on in the Stock Exchange Pirelli after the decision taken by the government of raise the golden share to protect the technology tire sensors and other strategic features of the company. But the Government has also given the green light to the shareholders' agreement between Camfin and ChemChina, with a strong 37% stake. The assembly, which must take place by the end of July, will elect a new board of directors, who will distribute the proxies at the first meeting: four of the 12 directors on the majority list must be designated by Camfin. The Chinese will be entitled to indicate 8 directors without the possibility of interfering in the choice of CEO.
Rain of dividends today on Piazza Affari. They detach the coupon:
- Acea (0,85 euros)
- Carel Industriel (0,18)
- Hera (0,125)
- Irene (0,11)
- Agricultural farms (0,06)
- ovs (0,06)
- Italian post office (0,44)
- Snam (0,1651)
- Drums (0,13)
- Triad (0,2083)
Farms closed the first quarter of 2023 with revenues up +30% compared to the pre-covid period (first quarter of 2019). The turnover has seen a constant increase in recent years, going from 51,7 million in 2020 to 74,7 million in 2022.
