It can't just be a correction. Analysts around the world are looking to confirm yesterday's international movement with European stock markets rising and Wall Street falling: it's no longer just about tariffs and counter-tariffs, capital is moving faster than goods. Financial historian Russell Napier suggests the world is adopting "national capitalism," a term he borrows from Lenin, referring to governments directing national savings toward domestic ends. Yesterday, the gap between European and US stock markets has further expanded.
Historic day more for Germany than for Trump
Yesterday was a historic day, perhaps more for Germany and Europe than for the long-awaited Trump-Putin phone call. The German government has torn down another wall and, as happened with the Berlin government, new prospects are now opening up: the Chamber has found enough votes to change the German Constitution and review public spending: this has meant that the euro appreciated against the dollar, it pushed up the European stocks and pushed the German stocks at near-record levels.
After a nearly three-hour phone call between Trump and Putin, the Russian president refused to grant his US counterpart the 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine that he and his team had sought on the way to ending the three-year conflict. Yet Trump celebrated it as a victory for him for having secured a deal to end attacks on at least Ukrainian energy facilities. The deal disappointed US officials. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he would accept such an idea as long as the US acted as a middleman.
Adding to the political intrigue are 400 deaths in Gaza and the sale of Chinese assets in Panama to the US
Two other events cannot go unnoticed, in the Middle East and in Panama. Yesterday, Israeli air strikes shattered the relative calm in Gaza, killing more than 400 people. But political intrigue has also intensified around the sale of the port assets of C. K. Hutchison. The company, owned by the billionaire Li Ka-shing, he agreed to sell assets, including those near the Panama Canal, of strategic importance, to a group led by BlackRock in an agreement welcomed by Trump but attacked by Chinese state media.
It's the day the US Federal Reserve is expected to be in stand-by mode
On a day of metabolizing major events like today, the fact that between today and tomorrow the central banks of half the world are meeting takes a back seat. Today is the turn of the Federal Reserve, followed tomorrow by Bank of England, From Swedish Riksbank and Swiss National Bank. All but the SNB are expected to leave rates on hold, as the Bank of Japan overnight today. Attention as usual will focus on their future intentions or their sensitivity to recent market swings around US tariffs and the prospect of slowing growth.
Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries have fallen 25 basis points since the Fed's last meeting in January, just a week after Donald Trump took office. The S&P 500 has fallen about 7%, and gold is hitting new all-time highs almost every day, most recently at $3.038 an ounce. Markets are now assessing the likelihood of a rate cut Fed rates will be zero, while in May the probability will be 15% and in June 65%. The Bank of Japan has kept interest rates stable, trying to buy time, and markets have had little immediate reaction.
Wall Street in sharp decline. Nvidia CEO does not convince
Yesterday, all three major US stock indexes recorded heavy losses, with weakness in large-cap technology stocks dragging the Nasdaq Composite down 1,71% to 17.504,12 points. The Dow Jones fell 0,62% to 41.581,31 points, the S&P 500 fell 1,07% to 5.614,66.
During the highly anticipated keynote speech at Nvidia's annual developer conference held yesterday in a packed hockey stadium in San Jose, California, CEO Huang did not entirely convince investors who were expecting a more aggressive response to the proposals of China's DeepSeek and the Nvidia stock fell 3,4% yesterday with signs of further declines today. Huang said his company will use the new optical technology co-packaged into two new networking chips in its servers, making the chips three and a half times more energy efficient than their predecessors. The switch chips will be available later this year and in 2026, representing a small but significant step forward in the technology’s advancement. But Huang told a group of reporters after his speech that while Nvidia has been exploring using it more widely in its flagship GPU chips, he has no plans at the moment to do so, because traditional copper connections were “orders of magnitude” more reliable than today's co-packaged optical connections.
US Treasury yields continue to fall
I Treasury yields U.S. yields fell as traders bet that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will strike a relatively dovish tone in his remarks at the end of the central bank's monetary policy meeting today. The U.S. benchmark 10-year bond yield fell 1,9 basis points to 4,287% from 4,306% late Monday, the 30-year yield fell 1 basis point to 4,589% from 4,599% late Monday, the 2 years, which typically moves in line with Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, fell 1,1 basis points to 4,042%, from 4,053% late Monday.
Dollar and Bitcoin Down, Gold Revisits All-Time Highs
Il dollar weakened and the euro gained ground following the German debt review. The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0,22% to 103,23, with the euro up 0,23% to $1,0947. Against the yen Japanese, the dollar strengthened by 0,06% to 149,3. The mexican peso strengthened by 0,13% against the dollar, settling at 19,933. The canadian dollar weakened 0,01% against the greenback, settling at 1,43 Canadian dollars per dollar.
in cryptocurrency, bitcoin fell 1,99% to $82.306,09. Ethereum fell 1,55% to $1.905,74.
Oil prices crude fell after peace talks between Russia and Ukraine helped quell concerns about instability in the Middle East. U.S. crude fell 1,01% to $66,90 a barrel, while Brent crude settled at $70,56 a barrel, down 0,72% on the day.
I gold prices they have reached a level record as the safe-haven metal benefited from escalating geopolitical tensions and lingering uncertainty over Trump's tariff plans. Spot gold rose 1,14% to $3.035,56 an ounce.
Asian stocks move little, Bank of Japan leaves rates on hold
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 1,2% to 595,37, while Japan's Nikkei rose 448,90 points, or 1,20%, to 37.845,42.
The Bank of Japan confirmed interest rates at 0,5% overnight, as expected. "There are still many uncertainties about the course of economic activity and the rise in prices, and the evolution of the impact of tariffs on trade," says the official statement from the board that made the decision. After a long phase of ultra-expansionary monetary policy, the Bank of Japan is gradually trying to bring rates back up. Inflation has remained above the 'healthy' target of 2% since April 2022, and a year ago the institute, for the first time since 2007, said the final word on the era of negative rates, before raising them to 0,25% in July, and again at the beginning of 2025.
Exports measured by value rose 11,4% in February from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said. The median estimate was for a 12,6% increase. Imports fell 0,7%, compared with the median estimate of a 0,8% increase. Japan's trade balance returned to surplus, with a surplus of 584,5 billion yen ($3,9 billion).
In China, a price war is underway between credit institutions
Slightly down bags of China. Hang Seng in Hong Kong -0,2%. CSI 300 indexes in Shanghai and Shenzhen -0,1%. Chinese banks are cutting rates on consumer loans to levels rarely seen in history. In the richest areas of Shanghai, the nation's financial capital, but also in Hangzhou, the technological center of China, a real price war between credit institutions. Annual interest rates they dropped to 2,58% and there are incessant marketing campaigns about credit offers. Only two years ago the rates were almost 10%.
European stocks seen opening at parity. Piazza Affari is at its highest since 2007
European stock markets should open around parity: the EuroStoxx50 index future is at -0,1%.
Piazza Affari is at its highest since 2007
Banco BPM “We are sure” that the green light from the ECB to use the Danish Compromise in the integration of Anima “will come”, also because “we are already a financial conglomerate under the umbrella of the Danish Compromise, it is just a matter of adding something”. This was underlined by the CEO of the Piazza Meda institute, Giuseppe Castagna, speaking at the European financials conference of Morgan Stanley. Castagna then recalled that the institute has no say in the timing with which the regulator will make its decision.
Eni. The Dutch company Vitol will acquire stakes in certain Eni assets in Côte d'Ivoire and the Republic of Congo for a consideration of 1,65 billion dollars with an economic effective date of 2024 January 77,25, subject to contractual cash adjustments upon completion of the transaction. Eni announced this after an agreement with Vitol. Vitol will acquire stakes in oil and gas production assets and in blocks in the exploration, evaluation and development phase. In particular, in the Baleine project in Côte d'Ivoire, in which Eni holds a 30% stake, Vitol will acquire a 65% stake, and in the Congo Lng project in the Republic of Congo, in which Eni holds a 25% stake, Vitol will acquire a XNUMX% stake.
Leonardo Morgan Stanley raises target price to 60 euros, from 35 euros.
Recordati Deutsche Bank raises rating from Sell to Hold.
TIM Intesa SanPaolo raised its target price to 0,41 euros. Tim will not make investments abroad where it instead aims to “monetise” its skills and technologies, especially in business services, developed in Italy, said CEO Pietro Labriola commenting on a MoU with the Azerbaijan Innovation Agency (IDDA) for digital transformation.
