Et voila. You return to breathe the smell (or perfume) of gunpowder around the fortress Generali/Mediobanca. Thanks to the Repubblica scoop that revealed the green light from IVASS (the Consob of the insurance companies) in Delphin to purchase new shares of the Lion, opening the way to a possible, new, attempt to climb the Lion.
The reaction from Piazza Affari was immediate both on the company and on Mediobanca, the other bastion of what was once the empire erected by Enrico Cuccia to defend the balance of finance in our house (secular and familist), today a sort of supervised Maginot line by the international allies of Alberto Nagel. Generali, in particular, brings together a leap forward by 5%. Almost as euphoric Mediobanca, up 2,5%, probable next battleground between the "besieged" management and the waves of assailants: Dolphin, safe of the Del Vecchio heirs, today 10% strong in Trieste plus 19,8% in Mediobanca. And no less fierce, Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone, which can now count on 6,23% of Generali and 9,9% in Piazzetta Cuccia.
At the end of the morning, however, Delfin, the holding company of the Del Vecchio family, cooled enthusiasm with a note: "The request to IVASS does not imply particular strategies". However, Generali remains at the top of the Ftse Mib with +3,41% and Mediobanca limits the increase to +1,69%, still among the best.
Stock exchanges latest news: the green light from Ivass to Delfin
The situation seemed frozen, after the General meeting which decreed the previous year victory of the Nagel-Donnet axis, or rather the trust placed by major international investors in the current management. But, out of the blue, the decision by Ivass in favor of Delfin came to break the balance. The financial holding company of the Del Vecchio family has been authorized by IVASS, the insurance supervisory authority, to raise more than 10% of Generali's capital up to 20%, thus becoming by far the largest shareholder of the Leone.
2,8 billion are needed for the takeover but now Delfin is holding back
A very demanding operation from a financial point of view (it takes, at current prices, just over 2,8 billion euros) but certainly within the reach of Delfin, which, thanks to the stellar profits of Luxottica-Essilor in 2022 alone, made a profit of 650 million euros. Difficult though that Francesco Milleri, Leonardo Del Vecchio's designated heir, launched an assault with cold weapons against the current leadership. As demonstrated by the soft (almost clandestine) maneuver to get the approval of the supervisory body. The request to join Generali was presented without fanfare on 17 April because – already having 9,8% of Generali's capital – Delfin had exceeded the 10% threshold due to the buyback of treasury shares by the company. Hence the feeling that Milleri is about to play for now a role only in support of thelunge with Caltagirone who had already supported the role of the number one antagonist on the occasion of the Trieste assembly.
In any case, the press release released at the end of the morning reads verbatim: the request to IVASS"has become necessary - pursuant to the law - as a result of the treasury share purchase plan launched by Assicurazioni Generali in August 2022 and implemented in the following months, a plan which determined the involuntary overcoming, by Delfin, of the threshold of 10% of the voting rights exercisable in Assicurazioni Generali, in the light of the suspension of the voting rights for the treasury shares purchased by the company. "This request, accepted on 30 June 2023 by the Authority, therefore it does not imply any particular strategy of Delfin, if not to act in compliance with the rules with respect to one's position as shareholder of the Trieste insurance company”, he adds.
Mediobanca: the October test and the role of Benetton
Moreover, it is by no means certain that the assault on Generali, the treasure trove of 600 billion in BOTs and BTPs, as well as the other reasons that make the company one of the few Italian protagonists of at least European caliber, must pass directly from Piazza Affari. Forever the access key to the company passes through Mediobanca, on the strength of that 13% of Generali which represents the bank's most valuable asset, as Leonardo del Vecchio contested to Nagel himself, suggesting more aggressive business plans, especially on the international front. The CEO three years ago managed to get confirmation by a wide margin, even though he couldn't count on Delfin's vote. In October, on the occasion of the shareholders' meeting that Enrico Cuccia wanted set for the 28th (a working day in defiance of the anniversary of the march on Rome), this time Nagel will have to deal with Delfin but also with 9,9% of Caltagirone and with 5% of the Benetton group. In addition to a new entry determined to assert itself: Daniel Iervolino, patron of Salernitana, determined to forge ahead in his success in the world of finance.
Evidence of takeover of Generali: the Caltagirone paragraph
The victory in the shareholders' meeting could be worth little or nothing if Delfin does not find a banking partner acceptable to the monetary authorities. Indeed, the ECB not only did it place a limit of 20% on Delfin but it also recommended that this stake only have a financial value, without affecting the management of the institution. At least for now this constraint has seemed as insurmountable as a drawbridge of a medieval castle. But there is a third way to attack the fortress of Nagel. If financial catapults weren't enough, here is the clever alchemy of Merlino Caltagirone: the financier presented himself in Parliament to support a bill that prohibits borrowed securities from being used to vote on the list of the board of directors. A standard in force almost everywhere but which according to the Roman engineer is not suited to a financial market like ours. Needless to say, those titles have so far served to support the reasons of the market against those of the "owners" of the most important packages. At least that's what Mario Draghi thought, in accordance with a governance in line with the more advanced markets.
From Dragons to Meloni: how the scenario changes on Generals
But times have changed. Certainly Giorgia Meloni does not dislike Caltagirone's declared objective of making Generali "a large multinational with Italian sovereignty" perhaps capable, as Del Vecchio asked, of pulling off some merger on an international level. To be presented in an assembly which, perhaps, will no longer be held on October 28, a mournful date for Cuccia, but not for rampant sovereignists.
We will see. For now, let's note that the siege of Trieste (if it takes place) allows Piazza Affari to break new records at the start of the second quarter: 28.511 points at the end of the morning with a gain of one percentage point, better than the other positive price lists: Euro Stoxx 50 + 0,3%. Dax of Frankfurt + 0,3% Paris + 0,2%.
Last updated at 15:00 on July 3, 2023