There is a lot of heat burning under the ashes on the markets, despite today's session closing with little movement in Europe and proceed downwards to Wall Street after a January work report to think about.
Milan settles above 37 thousand points (37.055), recently conquered and its modest -0,17% does not do justice to the boiling of events in the banking sector, where last night there was a new dramatic turn of events with the Bper takeover bid (-7,57%) on the entire capital of the Banca Popolare di Sondrio (+5,39%). Even outside the banks, however, there was no shortage of sparks: Iveco soars on the stock market with a boom of 21,54% after the results of the fourth quarter of 2024 and the announcement that it is evaluating the possibility of split up its defense unit; Team (+6,28%) increases its recent rally on rumors of being targeted by Iliad.
Frankfurt e London, which yesterday updated their all-time highs, are giving up 0,57% and 0,33%, Paris retreats by 0,43% e Madrid by 0,44%, while Amsterdam limits damage to 0,11%.
Wall Street Weak on Amazon, Jobs Report
Wall Street moves weakly towards the end of the morning (Nasdaq -1,05%), unnerved by macro data, the increase in Treasury bond rates and the results of Amazon (-4%), which is not the first giant to disappoint investors. Or rather, the quarterly accounts went better than for this, Treasury yields increasing.
This morning the long-awaited film was also released US employment report for January, which revealed below-estimate growth with the creation of 143 thousand jobs against expectations of 170 thousand more employed. The unemployment rate however fell from 4,1% to 4% and the Financial Times notes that this latter element strengthens the prospect of a Federal Reserve that moves slowly in cutting rates.
Added to this is the fact that, in February, the Americans are proving to be less optimistic about the economy compared to the previous month, with the preliminary reading of the monthly confidence index compiled by the University of Michigan at 67,8 points, after the 71,1 points of the final reading in January. Expectations were for a reading of 71,3 points. Weighing down are fears about inflation caused by US tariffsOne-year expectations rose from 3,3% to 4,3%; five-year expectations rose from 3,2% to 3,3%.
For these reasons, Treasury yields are rising.
ECB: Neutral rate apparently leaves room for further interest rate cuts
The theme of duties, war and peace, but also monetary policies have been the backdrop to the last sessions.
On the subject of central banks today also came out Bulletin of the ECB, in which Frankfurt notes that it will probably have to proceed with several interest rate cuts before reaching the level at which they stop curbing economic growth. For the reference on deposits, the neutral or natural level – which neither stimulates nor limits growth – is between 1,75% and 2,25%, little changed in recent years. This could leave room for at least two more cuts by Eurotower of 25 basis points, although this is not a mathematical certainty.
Dollar Rises as China Stocks Up on Bullion
In this context the dollar strengthens against major currencies, with theeuro which, at the moment, changes below 1,04 around 1,033.
Among the raw materials, the most notable remainsgold, as China's central bank continues to expand its gold reserves for the third month in a row (in January). The ingots held by the Dragon, according to data released today, increased by 0,16 million ounces, from 73,29 to 73,45 million, for a value of 206,53 billion from 193,43 billion, in line with the rise in prices.
As for today's prices, spot gold is currently appreciating by 0,8% and is trading at 2.878,57 dollars an ounce, while the April 2005 future is moving just above 2.900 dollars (+0,83%).
The futures of the Petroleum: Brent $74,53 per barrel (+0,32%); Texas crude $70,91 (+0,42%).
Shopping day also for the gas in Amsterdam, with the March futures above 55 euros.
In Piazza Affari, focus on Bper-Popolare di Sondrio, Iveco and Tim
In Business Square Bank stocks remain in the spotlight, actors in an earthquake that seems destined to change the face of the sector. The latest shock, in chronological order, is the one inflicted by Bper on Popular of Sondrio, banks that both have the shareholder behind them Unipol (+0,82%). The different performances of the two stocks today have already nullified the Modena premium, with the offer that has gone to a discount, but the first comments of the analysts have been positive. For Jefferies: “there are strategic advantages in the deal with Bper which would increase exposure to strategic regions and increase the value of markets in a context of rapid sector consolidation”. Deutsche Bank “the execution risk is likely to be relatively low, given the complementarity of the activities”. Equity “the operation is characterized by a low execution risk and has a strong industrial relevance as it will allow to consolidate the position of the combined entity in Northern Italy, leverage the product factories, share the best practices of both entities involved”. The operation has not been agreed, but the CEO of Bper does not consider it hostile. In the next few days, the council of the Sondrio popular, while Unipol, which does not see any obstacles in the offer, could discuss it next Thursday in the board of directors.
Another title that is the protagonist of this session is certainly Iveco, the subject of feverish trading (up to 5 times the daily average of the last month) and has approached as value at its all-time high, after the spin-off from Cnh. According to Equita, this buying frenzy was triggered by the news regarding "the defense spin-off that allows the valorization of an asset whose value within the group is totally neglected".
It should not be overlooked Telecom Italy, which remains at the centre of investors' interest, with increasingly insistent and detailed press reports relating to an interest of Iliad and some funds. Meanwhile, the company will present the 2025-2027 business plan.
Spread slightly up
The Italian paper closes a weak session, losing ground against the German paper, for one spread at 109 basis points. The 2,47-year BTP rate is at 2,37%, while the Bund rate is at XNUMX%.
