One step away from the tenth consecutive rise, the Bull stumbles Wall Street just a whisker away from the historical record of the S& P index. The turnaround began near the close of Wednesday, when another "historic" result already seemed to be a foregone conclusion. On the contrary, suddenly the "trap" was triggered: in the last trading the S&P index lost 1,5%. The Dow Jones, down 476 points, did even worse. It's the end of Christmas rally or an inevitable correction after the euphoria spread widely by the Fed's messages? The second is good, it is the most widespread interpretation: yesterday's economic data (confidence index and new home sales) do not support the forecast of an upcoming US rate cut while in Europe the Dutch banker took care of dampening the enthusiasm Class Knots: It is “rather unlikely” that the ECB will cut rates in the first six months of next year, as it first needs to see data on wage agreements. A nice bucket of water to quench the premature enthusiasm that will be felt at the Christmas markets. Unless tomorrow's inflation data brings back good cheer.
The golden season of bonds continues
However, the slide in the US stock market did not compromise the rise in yields bond markets. The US ten-year T Bond continued to fall to a new low overnight, falling to 3,860, in line with English bonds, on the scent of a rate cut.
Even more significant is the decline of the ten-year Bund to 1,97%, below the psychological threshold of 2% for the first time in a year. The ten-year BTP also fell to 3,60%, at its lowest level since December 2022.
Le European stock exchanges, in the wake of Wall Street, opened lower.
Green light for the Stability Pact
The Ftse Mib index in Milan ended the session on parity yesterday. But the "historic" news is the agreement on the Stability Pact.
The finance ministers of the European Union have found a agreement on reform which provides more time to reduce debt and incentives for public investments even during the budget consolidation process. “There are some positive things and some less so. However, Italy has obtained a sustainable agreement for our country aimed on the one hand at a realistic and gradual reduction of the debt while on the other it looks at investments especially of the Pnrr with a constructive spirit", commented the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti.
The new rules
The new rules set minimum amounts of average reduction of deficit and debtthat a government must respect, this is to satisfy the requests of the so-called frugal countries, Germany first and foremost. But, in general, the new rules are more relaxed than the previous ones. “We consider positive – continued Giorgetti – the transposition of our initial requests for the automatic extension of the plan connected to the investments of the Pnrr, the having considered defense as an important factor, the deduction of interest expenditure from the structural deficit until 2027”, he adds Giorgetti. The reform will not have an impact on European fiscal rules in 2024 because the budgets of the various countries for next year have already been decided on the basis of the guidelines during 2023. The new rules However, they will establish a slow but steady pace of deficit and debt reduction starting from 2025 over a period of between four and seven years, with the possibility of an extension if a country carries out reforms and investments in priority sectors for the EU.
While the old rules required a high-debt country like Italy to annually cut its debt by 1/20 of the excess over 60% of GDP, or 4% of GDP for Rome, the new rules require only an average annual reduction of debt of at least 1% of GDP.
The Italian government is ready to ask the EU for fifth installment of the Pnrr by 10,5 billion euros after the control room established to manage the Pnrr approved the 52 targets expected for 2023. The targets were remodeled in light of the review carried out by the government which also led to a reduction in the installments of the plan and an extension of time.
Oil rises, Bitcoin skyrockets
Brent at 79,70 dollars, Wti 74,20. Fourth consecutive increase. THE energy prices are reacting to news of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, a military escalation that makes it difficult for shipping companies to reach the Suez Canal. So far, the impact on oil supply appears to have been limited, although the market will continue to monitor the situation.
Bitcoin (43.500 usd) is set to close 2023 with a leap of +165%, while the market continues to bet on the imminent quotation Bitcoin ETFs on Wall Street. The bosses of the crypto community are very optimistic. Grayscale is one of them. In late November, its top brass met with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) trading and markets division to discuss details of its flagship Bitcoin trust fund that the firm plans to convert into an ETF. Against this backdrop, Jan3 CEO Samson Mow predicted that ETFs could push Bitcoin prices to $1 million!
The Eip fund enters Plenitude, Diasorin acquitted
The Eip fund should enter Plenitude with a share in the order of 10%, Il Sole24Ore reported this morning. The deal is expected to be announced today.
Erg announced its entry into the renewable energy market in the United States. The company has signed a strategic partnership with Apex Clean Energy to acquire a 317 MW portfolio of wind and solar facilities in Iowa and Illinois
stellantis. Business Minister Adolfo Urso said the government is working to open the doors to other car manufacturers, in addition to Stellantis, with the aim of increasing car production in Italy.
Intesa Sanpaolo. Goldman Sachs reduced the aggregate potential stake to 1,34% (of which 0,78% with voting rights, 0,1% as potential stake and 0,46% in other long positions) from 5,78% (of of which 5,05% in financial instruments) previously, according to Consob updates.
Unicredit. Goldman Sachs reduced aggregate potential holding to 0,54% (of which 0,02% with voting rights, 0,003% potential and 0,52% in other long positions) from 5,78% (of which 5,08 % in financial instruments) previously held.
MFE is increasingly "impatient" and "skeptical" about the strategy of the CEO of Prosiebensat.1 Bert Habets to relaunch the company, as said by a source close to Mfe, the main shareholder of the German television group.Diasorin. The Court of Pavia declared there was no place to proceed, because "the fact does not exist", for the CEO Carlo Rosa and the scientific director Fabrizio Bonelli in relation to the criminal proceedings against them for the crime of embezzlement.
