China's ban on iPhone use by public employees has cost Apple Lossless Audio CODEC (ALAC), -2,92% more than 200 billion dollars in stock market value in just two days. An eloquent signal of Wall Street's fear of the consequences of a new crackdown by Beijing in response to the embargo on new generation semiconductors, which has also been circumvented by Huawei which already has 7 nanometer chips which, according to Washington services, does not would have been able to do so before 2030. Joe Biden meanwhile is heading to New Delhi, home of the G20 which, among other things, will confirm India's entry into the club of the great hi-tech powers as well as the new darling of the stock markets. In this troubled climate the star of growth is extinguished for Europe. And the Eurostoxx lists, after seven sessions of decline (the longest negative streak since 2018), are limited to hoping for a pause in the rate hike next week when the ECB bankers meet.
Evidence of a rebound for the Eurostoxx after 7 declines
The futures of the Old Continent thus signal a slight increase at the opening: +0,2%.
Piazza Affari opens slightly up +0,10% after Thursday's negative closing at 28.155 points. The FTSEMIB lost 1,7% in the first four days, from +1,60% last week. The first threshold to monitor is 27.858 points. It was also a bad week for the other markets which wiped out the gains of the previous week.
Germany and Italy are slowing down Eurozone GDP
Eurozone GDP grew by only 0,1% in the second quarter of 2023 and data from Germany in particular contributed to the slowdown. in July German industrial production fell by 0,8% compared to the previous month.
But, bitter news, now Italy is also slowing down, finishing at the bottom of the growth rankings: -0,4% in the second quarter against +0,5% in France and +0,4% in Spain. While waiting for the EU estimates that will arrive on Monday, the DEF's growth objectives are moving away (+1% for this year, +1,5% in 2024).
The Treasury announces the BTP Valore with quarterly coupon
The Treasury, forced to raise cash in view of a challenging end of the year (81 billion in securities are due to expire) has announced a new issue of BTP Valore, following the success of the first (18,5 billion raised). The title will be on offer between 2 and 6 October. The duration is 5 years with quarterly coupons increasing based on the passage of time. There is also a loyalty bonus for those who keep the title until it expires.
Slight slowdown in yields: German Bund at 2,61% from 2,65%. Ten-year BTP at 4,33% from 4,40%.
Economists divided in half on the ECB summit
The ECB may raise interest rates one last time to tame inflation, but economists are unsure whether that will happen next week. A Bloomberg poll shows a nearly even split between those expecting a 4th consecutive increase on Thursday and those expecting an "aggressive pause" before the deposit rate hits a record 2024% in October. Respondents expect a first three-unit rate cut in March XNUMX.
ING analysts note that the market is almost completely ignoring the possibility of a rate increase at the ECB's September meeting, a hypothesis considered very high by some bankers.
S&P almost flat, recession no longer scares
US markets are also preparing to end the week on a lower note. At the moment the S&P500 (4.451 points) records a weekly loss of 0,7%, which compares with the +2,6% of the previous one. For the Nasdaq (13.748), the data is -1,3% and +3,35%.
But, one after the other, the most pessimistic analysts give up. Greg Bouie, strategist at BNP America, who had predicted a collapse of the S&P to 3.400 points, raised his forecast to 4.150 points at the end of the year.
The US currency crushes the euro and the Yuan
The US Dollar fell below 1,07 yesterday for the first time since June as more robust labor market data emerged. At these levels we could close the eighth positive week in a row, an event that has not occurred since 2014. ING analysts note that the market is almost completely ignoring the possibility of a rate hike at the ECB's September meeting, a hypothesis instead considered very high by some bankers.
Lorie Logan, president of the Dallas Fed, said skipping an interest rate hike at the next meeting (in September) might be appropriate, but she also signaled that rates might have to rise further to get inflation back to 2%.
Asia only India shines ahead of the G20
The strength of the US currency is also being felt on Asian markets.
The dollar-yuan exchange rate is at its lowest level in 16 years,
Stock markets in Asia Pacific retreat at the end of a week with an overall negative balance. However, there is no shortage of exceptions, the BSE Sensex index in Mumbai is up 0,3% this morning, +1,7% is the provisional weekly balance.
CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen lists -0,8% today, -1,7% for the week. Kospi of Seoul -0,6% today, -1% for the week. Tokyo's Nikkei loses 1,2% today, -0,4% for the week.
Brent slows, Australia pushes the throttle
Oil below 90 dollars for the second consecutive decline, at the opening, -0,7%. After the flare-up at the beginning of the week, which pushed the price to a ten-month high, concerns about a slowdown in global demand have returned to weigh. Weekly US crude oil inventories stood at 416,637 million barrels, down 6,307 million barrels from the previous week.
Il prices are in tension Natural gas: Workers at Chevron's liquefied natural gas projects in Australia will begin strike action from today after mediation talks between the unions and the energy major ended without a deal, potentially disrupting production at plants representing more than 5% of global supply. Australia is the largest LNG exporter in the world.
New orders from Saipem, JP Morgan cuts Fineco
Eni launched a senior unsecured sustainability-linked convertible bond with a duration of 7 years for a total nominal amount of one billion.
Saipem won two tenders for offshore work in Ivory Coast and Italy. The orders are worth 850 million dollars.
Fineco Bank JP Morgan cut the rating from Overweight to Neutral.
Mediobanca The newspapers write that Delfin and the company's top management are close to an agreement on ownership control. The Del Vecchio heirs ask for five representatives on the board of directors.
Banco BPM The Enasarco Foundation holds 3,01% of the capital, according to the latest Consob findings.
BPER Banca Deputy general manager Gian Luca Santi will be the new CFO
Leonardo Handelsblatt wrote that Germany, Italy, Spain and Sweden will work on the new Leopard tank. Boeing has confirmed production targets for the next five months.
