On the eve of the Lunar New Year Chinese stock markets take flight. This time the bull is pushing upwards Central Huijin Investment, the holding company that manages the Chinese government's holdings in financial institutions which this morning said it will continue to increase its holdings. The intention to exploit the holidays to encourage a recovery in investments and consumption that counteracts deflation is clear. The concern of the US central bank is the opposite, dealing with the positive data of the ISM services index which jumped to 53,4 points, from 50,4 in the previous period (revised data). Analysts assumed 52. In particular, the employment component stands out, which rose to 50,5 from 43 in the previous month, more than economists thought.
Xi floods Shanghai with purchases
According to Goldman Sachs, the “National Team” set up by Xi Jingping bought about 70 billion yuan ($9,7 billion) worth of onshore Chinese stocks over the past month. For the investment bank, in order to stabilize the market they are 200 billion yuan needed, equal to approximately 0,8% of the market capitalization of the exchange's free float, to stabilize the market. Stock markets rise Shanghai e Hong Kong +3%, but the euphoria is not transmitted to Tokyo -0,2% despite the excellent results of Toyota, the most reluctant of the big names to embrace the electric car revolution. Instead he suffers Tesla (yesterday -3,6%) slipped to the lowest levels since May. -27% since the beginning of the year.
Rates, the US decline is postponed to June
But the positive news entails higher rates for longer, as highlighted by the president of the Chicago Fed Austan Goolsbee, reiterating the message of Jerome Powell, who moved the time for cuts to May. Today the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Ma Goolsbee, above all preached patience: “I believe – he said in an interview with Bloomberg – that if we continue to receive positive data we are on the road to normalization. But the US ten-year bond, which rose above the 4% threshold again, immediately reflected the market's disappointment. Investors are now pricing in a very low chance of a FED rate cut in March and have also reduced expectations for a cut in May. Several analysts now move the first cut only by June.
Piazza Affari superstar thanks to the banks: +5% the sector index
The start of the week is therefore marked by uncertainty for the main stock exchanges around the world, with one pleasant exception: Business Square. In Monday's session, the FTSE MIB index yesterday broke through 31 thousand points for the first time in about 15 years, thanks to the push from the banks: the FTSE index of Italian banks managed to gain up to 5%, reaching the top since 2016. Unicredit it closed up 8%, after surprising analysts with a positive set on all fronts. Today we await the response from Intesa Sanpaolo, while Milan opened up by half a percentage point.
Sanctions, Russian aluminum at risk
Petroleum up 0,3%, from +0,8% yesterday. It's partly about the rebound in the Chinese stock market, partly about geopolitical tensions. The operators were evaluating the effects of the US Secretary of State's visit to the Middle East, Antony blinken, to discuss a ceasefire offer in the region. The United States continued its campaign against the Houthis supported by Iran in Yemen, whose attacks on merchant ships have disrupted global oil trade routes.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index is little moved at 96,70 usd. As the second anniversary of the war in Ukraine approaches (24 February 2022), another round of sanctions against Russia, even if the European Union is theoretically running out of assets that it can actually sanction. An article in the magazine "Politico" raised the possibility that everything will be sanctioned Russian aluminium. Aluminum meanwhile has fallen -7% since the beginning of the year.
Il Natural Gas TTF European closed down by -3,3% to 28,30 euros/mwh. The prospect of seeing it drop to around 20 euros as summer approaches remains valid.
Gold ($2.029). It opens little changed from -0,7% yesterday
The titles in the spotlight
Attention focused on the accounts of Intesa Sanpaolo and on the markets' response to the results of Unicredit. JP Morgan raised the target price to 35 euros. Other investment banks raise their target prices following the publication of the quarterly data. “I only have in mind the creation of value and I want to maximize it over time in a sustainable way”. The CEO of Unicredit, Andrea Orcel, says this to Corriere della Sera, answering a question on banking risk.
stellantis will furlough workers at its Mirafiori plant in Turin this month and next in response to weak market demand for its all-electric Fiat 500 subcompact and Maserati models.
Lottomatica is Jefferies' top pick in gaming for 2024.
ubs reported a loss of $279 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, its second consecutive negative result, due to integration costs of its former rival Credit Suisse.
Stm: Infineon has revised its forecasts for 2024 downwards, but probably due to the negative effects of the exchange rate.
The American NXP Semiconductor presented tonight figures for the quarter that were slightly above expectations. Revenues equal to 3,42 billion dollars, expected 3,40 billion
Enel: Goldman Sachs cuts the target price to 8,70 euros.
