Last week's financial highlight has been archived: Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole he confirmed that the time has come to proceed with an adjustment of monetary policy, however offering few indications on the pace of the decline and observing that it will depend “on the incoming data, the evolution of forecasts and the balance of risks. It is not clear whether this scenario will justify the cut of 25 or 50 basis points as early as September but leads many analysts to believe that, if the data allows it, the 2024 cut (in three instalments) could reach 1 percent.
The focus shifts again to theaters of war, after massive missile attacks across Ukraine tonight with drones, jets and warships in the Black Sea, as tension grows between Hamas and Israel.
Sui price lists, although corroborated by Powell's words, the memory of the powerful slide on the markets at the beginning of August is still vivid: we are once again wondering what the tech which had run wildly in the first part of the year, only to then give way dramatically. However, there is also the sector of concern luxury, so penalized by the consumption crisis in China and that pharmaceuticals so indebted. According to Gabriel Debach, Italian market analyst of eToro, a social investment community with 38 million users worldwide, the discretionary consumption, utilities and healthcare sectors have started to rise again, a sign that the appetite for equity risk, after that slide, has returned, albeit with a little caution. “The summer storm tested the markets, but the bullish foundations remain solid,” he says.
Wall Street positive on Friday, tech stocks shine again
The main US stock indexes closed the last session of the week in positive territory, supported by Powell's statements. The Dow Jones gained 1,14% to 41.175 points, while theS & P500 it posted an increase of 1,15% to 5.635 points. Positive performance also for the Nasdaq (+1,47% to 17.878 points). The VIX volatility index at 15,90 has fallen by around -10% over the last five sessions and is moving well away from the alert thresholds reached at the beginning of August at 65 points.
The focus of the next few days will be on the quarterly report Nvidia , global protagonist of the revolution in artificial intelligence, scheduled for Wednesday 28 August. On Friday it closed with a +4,55% at 129,37 dollars. Also on the rise Tesla (+4,59% to 220,32 dollars) e Intel (+2,19% to 20,54 dollars) after the correction suffered in the previous session. Ten-year Treasury Note yield at 3,79%.
Asia: expectations for a monetary tightening from the Boj are growing
Asia-Pacific stocks are mixed in the first session following Powell's words. The Nikkei 225 and TOPIX are down about 1% each, while the yen strengthens. The Dollar cross Yen is down 0,4% and is approaching the lows reached at the beginning of August, in the growing belief that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates further this year. BoJ governor Kauzo Ueda's aggressive comments have reinforced this idea. A stronger yen further weakens the carry trade, which had served to divert large capital flows out of the yen to seek higher-yielding markets. Inflation data from Tokyo, due later this week, should offer further clues to the path of Japanese rates.
THEAustralian ASX 200 rises by 0,6% and is back in sight of record highs. India slightly positive. South Korea's KOSPI is flat. The Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong rose by 0,8%, recovering part of the strong losses of the previous session. The CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices China they lost 0,4% and 0,3% respectively, weighed down by persistent concerns about a slowdown in the economic recovery. There People’s Bank of China withdrew about 101 billion yuan ($14,2 billion) of liquidity from the open market. The move appears aimed at strengthening the yuan.
The other variables
the yield of Waist ten-year is at 2% from 22%, while that of construction sector ten-year is at 3,56% on the minimums since the beginning of 2024 with the spread which shares at 134 bps. THE'Euro dollar it is unchanged at 1,1185, at the highest levels since the beginning of 2024. Petroleum: Brent and WTI +0,7% as tension grows between Hamas and Israel. Gold unchanged at $2.510. Last Tuesday it reached a new all-time high of $2.531. Bitcoin to 64.200 dollars, +0,7%
European stock markets today: what to follow
In a session that will see the absence of the London stock exchange, closed today for the Bank Holiday, the European stock markets, based on futures indications, are seen opening lower: the Eurostoxx50 futures are at -0,2% and flat they are US futures.
Team. According to Corriere della Sera on Saturday, the banker Claudio Costamagna, former president of the CDP, is working together with others to form a consortium of investors potentially interested in the share of Vivendi in the Italian telephone group. The operation, continues the article, which generically cites sources, could be based on a special purpose vehicle that would take over Vivendi shares in several stages, starting from a 6-7% stake for around 500 million euros.
Unieuro. Consob has approved the offer document of the takeover bid launched by Fnac Darty. The membership period will begin on September 2nd and end on October 25th, unless extended.
Ferrari. The sixth consecutive historical record arrived on Friday at 435,50 euros.
nexi. On Friday it achieved its thirteenth consecutive rise.
Saras Reopening of the terms of membership of the mandatory takeover bid promoted by Varas until August 30th.
In general, banking sector stocks should be followed after Friday's earnings: Intesa Sanpaolo it gained 1,53% to 3,6775 euros and B for Bank (+1,24% to 4,993 euros).
