The USA narrowly avoids the feared federal government shutdown which would have compromised government activity. Republican speaker Kevin McCarthy found a compromise that allowed the passage of the text with a bipartisan vote of Democrats and Republicans. Aid to Ukraine is paying the price, at least for now, but an element of uncertainty for the markets is removed. A sign of good omen for the start of the fourth quarter, for now dominated by quite a few negative factors: the mortgage of the expensive Petroleum, even more so the pressure of top yields on government bonds.
Milan stable in the third quarter
THEUS agreement favors a positive start for the price lists. The stock exchanges of Europe should open higher, EuroStoxx50 futures rise by 0,2%.
Milano the third quarter ended in perfect balance: +0,04% to 28.243 points.
Luxury suffers, oil companies advance. Thus the capitalization ranking changes. Today the London Stock Exchange could overtake Paris.
The data will be released in the morning SMEs on manufacturing of the main Eurozone countries and those on unemployment in Italy and the Eurozone. Tomorrow it will be the final Italian GDP of the third quarter and the deficit/GDP ratio in the second quarter.
Btp Valore launched: better yield than the traditional 5-year bond
These numbers accompany the debut of the second issue of Btp Value, re-proposed by the Treasury just four months after its successful debut (raising 18,19 billion euros).
The Ministry of Economy and Finance announced on Friday the amount of yield of the new bond: 4,1% for the first three years and 4,5% for the 3rd and 4th year. The duration is five years and a coupon is expected every three months.
The announced coupons lead to an overall rate at maturity, also taking into consideration the loyalty premium at maturity of 0,5%, substantially higher than the current rate of the corresponding 5-year BTP, equal to 4,21%: the difference is approximately 15 basis points.
Uncertainties about the state of the offer are weighing on the offer (closing scheduled for 13pm on Friday). public finance Italian, after the decision to propose a financial maneuver with a greater deficit than expected. We start again from a ten-year yield of 4,77%. for a spread of 193 points.
Friday's data signaled the first positive effects oninflation. Consumer prices in the euro area rose by +4,3% year on year, slowing down from +5,2% in August and below consensus expectations (+4,5%). Overall inflation has fallen to levels not seen for a year. Prices adjusted for volatile components also cooled more than expected, to +4,5% from +5,3
US confidence rises again, black month for T-bonds
The atmosphere across the ocean is positive. The future ofS & P 500 is up 0,5%. The benchmark index on Friday Wall Street it closed down 0,3%, -4,9% for the month.
Friday's macro data also confirmed the extraordinary resilience of the US economy: the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index improved to 68,1 points from 67,7, economists were expecting a confirmation of the data in August. The component on today's conditions has increased and those on tomorrow have also increased. One-year inflation expectations, however, return to 2021 levels: respondents expect prices to rise by 3,2% year on year, from the previous +3,5%.
Agreement on X between Musk and Ackman. Powell speaks today
It takes shape, according to the Wall Street Journal, the axis between Elon Musk and the billionaire tycoon Bill Ackman ready to promote one To sleep to welcome X (formerly Twitter) and thus accelerate the return of social media to the stock market.
Il dollar (1,0570) starts with little change, after completing the best quarter of the year with +3,10%. The cross is just above the lows of the year reached last Wednesday at 1,0488.
Quarter to forget for i government bonds. The price of the 10-year Treasury fell by -3,7% (almost zero loss if the data is converted into euros) with a yield of 4,60%, the highest since 2007.
The speech of the Fed governor is expected today, Jerome Powell, tomorrow the ECB's chief economist Philip Lane will speak on inflation in Vilnius and on Wednesday ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak at a conference on monetary policy. Tomorrow the Australian Central Bank will decide on rates.
Yen at lows against dollar, Chinese PMI rises
Chinese stock markets closed for the Golden Week. But over the weekend there were indications of recovery from the Chinese industry. The Manufacturing PMI index rose to 50,2 from 49,7 in August. The consensus was 50,1.
Avanza Tokyo. The index Nikkei rises by 0,7%. But it yen, which reached almost 150 against the dollar, is at its lowest level in a year.
From the publication of the minutes it emerges that the Bank of Japan he discussed a path out of ultra-expansionary politics. During the September meeting, the board members assessed the conditions to be met before putting an end to the long phase of negative or very low rates.
“Sustainable and stable achievement of the price stability objective, accompanied by wage increases, is not yet in sight, and therefore the Bank must patiently continue with monetary easing under yield curve control,” reads the summary of the BOJ's opinions. However, one member highlighted that the second half of the fiscal year ending in March 2024 will mark an "important period" to determine whether the price stability objective will be achieved.
Oil rises awaiting OPEC+
Brent at $92,40, wtf at $91. The Brent future expiring in December opens slightly higher. September ended with an increase of 9,7% USD, while the third quarter recorded a jump of +28%, which alarmed the markets. OPEC plus its allies are unlikely to change its current oil production policy when the committee meets on Wednesday, four OPEC+ sources told Reuters, as supplies are tighter and demand is rising.
Tamburi takes Alpitour to the stock exchange, downgrading for Moncler
The front is still heating up Mediobanca. Over the weekend, the news that Poste Italiane has a share of more than 1% in the institution caused quite a stir. Post clarified that he will not exercise his right to vote at the October 28 meeting. Delfin, the holding company of the Del Vecchio family, is expected to present its list for the Mediobanca board of directors today, made up of five names.
Generals has appointed Giulio Terzariol, former top manager of Allianz, head of the entire area of the group active in the characteristic business, that of insurance.
stellantis The September sales figures will be released in the evening. The Uaw union has decided not to call a new strike at Stellantis' American factories after the group made improvements to the contract a few minutes before the expected announcement, according to the president of the US union. Uaw also dropped allegations of unfair labor practices against GM and Stellantis.
Moncler. RBC lowers the target price to 58 euros, from 62 euros.
Banca Popolare di Sondrio. A group of members considers the objectives announced by Unipol to be positive, having risen to almost 20% of the Valtellina bank, but is concerned that the move is preliminary to banking aggregation operations and is addressing in particular the 'Together for Popolare' Association, which holds 4% of the capital, so that it can increase its presence to at least 10%.
Drums Investment Partners. The reference partners of Alpitour World, including the club deal Asset Italia 1, a vehicle promoted by Tamburi Investment Partners and of which Tip is the largest investor, which holds approximately 59% of Alpitour World, have appointed Goldman Sachs Bank Europe to start an exploratory process for the valorization of its shares.
