THEattack on Donald Trump does not appear to have significant effects on American markets with ifuture of Wall Street which are however currently traveling in positive territory. Waiting for the new ones quarterly: on the agenda BlackRock e Goldman Sachs Group. Different scenario for Europe where the price lists are preparing to start the first session of the week negatively. Asia heavy after data on economic growth in China weaker than expected results and above all retail sales at 2-year lows.
Wall Street awaits reaction to Trump attack. Keep an eye on the quarterly reports
All eyes will be on Wall Street today to see how the markets will react to the news of theattack on Donald Trump Yesterday. Futures are slightly higher. The dollar, although considered a safe haven asset, fell. Trump will appear at the Republican convention later this week and will likely be nominated as the party's nominee for the presidential race. According to some analysts, it is possible that the debate that has already begun on weaponry for personal use, may benefit pistol and rifle manufacturing companies. THE Ten-Year Treasury Notes it is at 4,32%, +3 basis points. The hypothesis of a is strengthened Trump's return at the White House, with probable greater recourse by the Treasury to the instrument of debt with an increase in emissions government paper on the markets. THE US futures they are trading slightly higher (+0,24% on the Dow Jones and +0,21% on the S&P500).
Wall Street closed the session that marked the start of the US quarterly reports with a slight rise on Friday. The Dow Jones it achieved a rise of 0,62% to 40.001 points, below the new historic high of 40.257 points. The S&P500 recovered 0,55% to 5.615 points. A plus sign also for the Nasdaq (+0,63% at 18.398 points).
Overall, the data for the second quarter of the former three large American banks, Citigroup, JP Morgan and Well Fargo showed good financial performance. Moreover, the large Stars and Stripes banks have recently passed the Federal Reserve's annual stress tests, with which they demonstrated sufficient solidity in the face of adverse scenarios, including serious economic and financial crises. Furthermore, they could also improve if that were achieved modification of the coefficients assets that the Fed is studying. But in all three budgets they emerged traces of an uncertain climate generated by the combination of high rates of interest e slowdown in consumption, which pushes to greater coverage of potential non-performing loans. On Wall Street, immediately after the accounts, the shares of the three banks lost ground, with Wells Fargo the most penalized, with Citigroup closing at -1,8%, Wells Fargo at -6,02% and JP Morgan at - 1,13%.
Positive closure, however, for Tesla (+3,03% to 248,33 dollars). UBS analysts improved their price target on the auto company, bringing it from $147 to $197; However, experts have worsened their judgment and now recommend selling the shares. Very good too Intel (+ 2,97%).
Today will be the turn of BlackRock e Goldman Sachs Group, which will release second-quarter data before Wall Street opens. Following, in the next few days there will be, among the big names, Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Netflix, Morgan Stanley. Overall they will be fine 182 companies to show the accounts to the market. At that point operators will have more information to confirm or not soft landing bet. Overall, according to the specialized company FactSet, i profits of S&P 500 stocks should increase overall by 8,8% in the second quarter, the highest since the first quarter of 2022, with the sector still in focus technological and the leaders ofartificial intelligence. The Index is also on the agenda today Empire Manufacturing in July 2024 (14.30 pm). Consensus: -6,0.
China is growing less than expected. Tokyo closed
THEattack on Donald Trumpp yesterday seems to have significant effects on the Asia Pacific markets, mostly driven by the traditional themes of economics and finance, especially as the Tokyo stock exchange is closed for holidays. The Hang Seng descends Hong Kong, -1,5%. The CSI 300 of the price lists is slightly rising Shanghai and Shenzhen.
China. GDP recorded the pace in the second quarter worst in the last five quarters, with a +4,7%, bringing growth in the first half of the year to +5%, in line with Beijing's annual target, while the consensus expected +5,1%. There industrial production rose 5,3% year-on-year in June, above estimates of +5%. The retail sales grew by 2%, theslowest increase since 2022, despite a government program of subsidies for the replacement of old vehicles and household appliances, +3,4% expected. The investments in real estate they increased by 3,9% in the first six months. The data came out a few hours after the announcement of the closed-door meeting ofplenary meeting of the Communist Party of China, a conclave of 370 senior party leaders intended to renew the trust in President Xi Jinping. “Among all the monthly data published today, the highlight is the weakness in retail sales“said Raymond Yeung, chief China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. “Family consumption remains very weak. 'Replacement' programs fail to lift spending. With employers cutting wages and high youth unemployment, families will still be cautious in the future.”
The bag of South Korea is around parity, the ASX 200 index is rising Sidney (+0,5%). The BSE Sensex opened in the green Mumbai.
Stock market July 15th in Europe: what to follow today
European stock markets should open lower based on what the EuroStoxx50 future index indicates -0,4%, the Milan and Frankfurt futures -0,17%. Paris was the worst with a drop of 0,8. The Ftse Mib in Milan closed Friday up by 0,7%, with +1,7% for the entire week. The main event of the week will be on Thursday ECB meeting from which, however, no changes in monetary policy are expected. If anything, the consistency between the indications coming from Frankfurt and the market expectations for September needs to be verified: the rate cut is set at 84%.
The yield of Waist German starts again from 2,49% and that of construction sector at 3,79%. The Italy-Germany spread fell to 129 basis points. The OAT French ten-year yields 3,14% and the Bund/OAT differential is at 61 basis points. The euro-dollar exchange rate at 1,089, with a slight strengthening of the US currency. Petroleum Brent rose slightly to 85 dollars and WTI to 82,5 dollars. Gold to 2.411 usd. Bitcoin to 62.700 dollars, +4%. Donald Trump It is considered more benevolent by Joe Biden on the regulation of cryptocurrencies.
Saipem announced that it has been awarded two offshore projects in Saudi Arabia under the Long-Term Agreement in force with Saudi Aramco. The total amount of the two projects is approximately 500 million dollars. Specifically, Saipem's activities for the first project include the engineering, procurement, construction and installation of a crude oil trunkline of approximately 50 km with a diameter of 42 inches for the Abu Safa field, while those relating to the second project concern the production maintenance programs of the Berri and Manifa fields.
Unicredit. The Foreign Minister, Antonio Tajani, once again defended the bank's choice to turn to the European Court of Justice on the terms set by the ECB for the reduction of its presence in Russia. The minister said that the ECB had "extended itself" a little too much in calling for an exit from Russia.
Intesa Sanpaolo. The three main Italian pension funds, namely Enpam, Cassa Forense and Inarcassa have increased their overall presence in the bank to around 2,2% and want to rise further to at least 3,5%, according to Il Messaggero. The funds would aim to have a director on the next board.
B for Bank added an agreement with the unions for 615 voluntary exits during 2025, 460 permanent hires and a 2024 company bonus of 1.850 euros, as communicated by Fabi.
Fincantieri. The offer of the unexercised rights of the capital increase begins (ends tomorrow, unless early closure
Ratings. B for Bank. KBW cuts rating to Market Perform. And raise the target price by a few decimals Banco BPM , to 7,54 euro. Generali Barclays raises the target price to 21 euros
Today's data: Industrial production in the area in May 2024 (11.00 am). Consensus: -1,0% m/m.
