Yesterday's dataUS inflation, result falling even more than expected it has disrupted the portfolios of overseas investors who have decided to take home some of the profits from the tech surge and focus on smaller companies. So the Nasdaq after seven consecutive record-breaking sessions it closed down 2%. The air of profit-taking has spread to Asia Pacific where real estate stocks have shone in Hong Kong. Overall, the stock markets of the Old Continent have withstood the storms well and the futures suggest an upward opening. Keep your eyes on Piazza Affari Saipem e Brunello Cucinelli.
Changes are taking place on Wall Street: gains in tech companies and investments in small ones
Un tax cuti by the Fed in September has now become a certainty for investors after yesterday's declining inflation data and so they decide to take home benefits from technology and move to other sectors, in particular small and medium-sized companies. So sharp decline in the big names in the index Nasdaq which abruptly interrupted the sprint, closing with a drop of 2% after seven consecutive record sessions. S & P500 -0,9%. Just above parity the Dow Jones . The Bloomberg index Magnificent 7 it lost 4,2%, one of the worst sessions in its history. Among the big names in tech, Nvidia -4,78% Microsoft -2,34% Meta Platforms -3,60%, Netflix -3,49% Amazon -2,37% Tesla -0,66%.
Regarding Apple (-2,27%) in particular, the company expects to increase shipments of its new phones by about 10%, to at least 90 million iPhones, in the second half of this year, according to what has been learned by Bloomberg. A leap, therefore, compared to the 81 million iPhone 15s delivered in the second half of 2023. Artificial intelligence will be the driving force. According to sources, the Cupertino company is convinced that the addition of some Apple Intelligence AI features to the iPhone 16 will contribute to an increase in consumer demand, once the model is launched on the market towards the end of the year .
The protagonists of the session were the small to medium sized companies: I'Russell 2000 index +5,8%, best session since November 2020.
The earnings season of the second quarter of 2024 begins: the accounts are published Citigroup, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo.
The rate cut in September is now a given. Indications expected on July 30-31
The US consumer price index saw a +3% year-on-year and -0,1% month-on-month, surprising data given that expectations were set for +3,1% y/y and +0,1% m/m. Even the most interesting data, i.e. the core data (excluding energy and food) recorded a +3,3% on an annual basis and a +0,1% on a monthly basis (forecasts +3,4% y/y, +0,2 % m/m). The core index on a monthly basis, after numerous months with growth between 0,3% and 0,4%, showed a slowdown in May (+0,2% m/m) which was then confirmed in June (+0,1 ,XNUMX%). “The president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, in recent weeks, has always declared that he was waiting for macroeconomic data that confirmed a concrete path of decline for inflationary pressures before proceeding with a change in the monetary policies of the US central bank” he commented Philip Diodovich, IG strategist. “Powell's demands appear to have been met. Inflationary pressures have shown a significant slowdown and for this reason the possibility of a cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting (17-18 September) becomes increasingly likely. The next meeting in July (30-31) will be preparatory for Powell to anticipate an upcoming change in monetary policy with a probable cut in interest rates in the coming months". Regarding liquidity, Antonio Cesarano, the chief global strategist of Intermonte says that "the Federal Reserve could open to the hypothesis of a complete stop to the program for reducing maturing bonds that are not reinvested, to cope with the strong increase in Tbills issues necessary to finance the significant increase in the 2024 deficit, close to 2000 billion". The yield of Treasury Notes ten-year bonds fell to 4,22%, from 4,30% the day before.
Hong Kong +2% supported by real estate. Injection of Yuan from the Chinese central bank
In the aftermath of the sharp decline in Wall Street's tech stocks, the stock market in Asia Pacific Hong Kong is up with the Hang Seng index +2%, closing the week with an increase of 2,2%. Stocks in the real estate sector especially rose: Sun Hung Kai Properties, the largest developer in Hong Kong, +4,7%, Henderson Land Development +7,1%, which contributed to raising the Hang Seng index by 2 %, moving it away from the low of the last two months reached earlier this week. Some technology companies such as Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent Holdings also rose, rising by more than 2% each.
Despite the data of Chinese exports of June was better than expected (+8,6% year on year against +8% of the consensus), the stock markets of Shanghai and Shenzhen are in slight decline. Construction and real estate companies are also rebounding here. Investors are preparing for the Communist Party's third plenary session, which kicks off on Monday, looking for clues about whether there might be more political support for an economy hit by the ropes by the housing market collapse and weakening consumer spending. There Central Bank of China injected 2 billion into the banking system yuan (approximately $280,45 billion) of liquidity through seven-day repo operations at an interest rate of 1,8%.
Il Nikkei it lost 2,2% and accumulated +1% over the week. It has been revised upwards Japanese industrial production in May at +3,6%, overturning the result of the preliminary estimate (-0,9%) and exceeding analysts' expectations (+2,8%). In April, growth of 2,8% was recorded. It's very volatile yen after yesterday's jump, the cross is at 159,1. TAIEX index of Taipei -2,2%, +1,5% per week. KOSPI by Alone -1,2%. Australian stock market rises, index S&P/ASX + 0,8%.
Stock market July 12: what to follow
Europe's stock markets should open in positive territory, based on the price of the EuroStoxx 50 future +0,14%. Yesterday the Ftse Mib of Milan closed slightly higher. All in all, the stock market of the Old Continent was little affected by yesterday's violent movements on Wall Street. IG futures give the FTSE Mib in the green by 0,3% or up 90,0 points, after closing fractionally higher at 34.318,11. The CAC 40 in Paris is expected to rise by 0,2% or up by 16,5 points, the DAX 40 in Frankfurt is given in green by 0,2% or up by 38,9 points, the FTSE 100 in London is expected to be in the black by 0,4 or up by 33,4 points.
They got out government returns also in Europe as well as in the USA: The yield of the German Bund is at 2,45% and that of the BTP at 3,78%, the minimum of the last two months, from 3,85% the day before. Spreads contracting, both on Italian and French paper: Italy-Germany spread is at 133 basis points. The 3,13-year French OAT yields 68% and the Bund/OAT differential is at 1,087 basis points. Euro appreciating to 3,522, at medium-term highs due to the approaching rate cut in the United States. The inflation data pushed gold even higher, this morning to 1,9 dollars, 83% yesterday. WTI oil at $1 a barrel, up slightly. Bitcoin -56.900% to $XNUMX.
Brunello Cucinelli could record important changes at the start of the day, after having provided some financial indications relating to the 1st half of 2024. On the basis of the results achieved in the 1st half and the prospects for the coming months, the management of Brunello Cucinelli has confirmed the objectives to close the 2024 with turnover growth in the order of 10%.
Saipem strengthens the long-standing collaboration with BP. The group led by Alessandro Puliti announced the signing of a framework agreement between BP Exploration (Caspian Sea) Limited and a consortium composed of Saipem Contracting Netherlands BV, Bos Shelf Llc and Bos Shelf International Fzco. It involves the execution of offshore activities in the Azerbaijani waters of the Caspian Sea using the SCV Khankendi vessel, a state-of-the-art vessel owned by the Shah Deniz consortium specially designed for subsea construction.
Fincantieri. The 400 million euro capital increase concluded with the subscription of 151.196.418 new shares, equal to approximately 99,2% of the total new shares offered.
Enel. Jefferies raises the rating to Buy, from Hold, target price at 8 euros.
