Waiting for data onUS inflation today and the decisions of the central banks starting from the Fed, the markets are moving, cautiously, upwards. The script, barring surprises, is already written: rates unchanged for now, first decline in March barring new tensions in the labor market. Meanwhile, the Bull is champing at the bit, touching the year's highs, albeit slightly. But what gives a measure of the desire for growth is the awakening of private individuals: a consortium of investors consisting of Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management. The two subjects came forward to purchase Macy's with a proposal of $21 a share, a 21% premium despite the decline in sales. For now, a contrasting geopolitical framework: the conference, matters little 28 Cop is approaching its conclusion with a possible downward agreement on fossil energy, the result of the tacit agreement between the sheikhs and the Western majors.
Milan opens slightly higher
Stock markets opened slightly higher. Europe continues to push, albeit with less vigor. On Monday, the Eurostoxx 50 index (+0,4%, 4.540) reached its highest level since August 2007, the Dax (+0,2%, 16.794) updated its historical record,
After the first trading, Piazza Affari gained 0,4% and marginally touched the tops since 2008. The break confirmed at the end of the week in the 30 thousand area opened the way for increases of up to 34 thousand points.
Monday contributed to setting the tone for the price list Mount Paschi +3% later the acquittal of the former leaders Fabrizio Viola and Alessandro Profumo which freed up several hundred million euros of provisionsthe. FinecoBank +5,7% on the day of the publication of the November collection data. Today the spotlight is focused on the industrial plan of Bank Bpm.
Consolidation session, without particular ideas for bonds waiting for the appointments with US inflation, FED and ECB. We start again from: 4,21-year US Treasury at 4,70%, 2,27-year Treasury at 4,05%, 178-year German Bund at XNUMX%. Ten-year BTP at XNUMX%. Spread at XNUMX.
We could start discussing the end of rand PEPP investments in the meeting on Thursday. According to Frederik Ducrozet, head of macro research at Pictet Wealth Management, if the ECB stopped reinvestments in June, Italy would lose around 15 billion euros of liquidity - compared to the over 350 billion of debt it will sell next year - a figure relatively small which should not generate volatility on the market.
Money markets are pricing in the probability that the ECB will start cutting rates from March at 60%, with an overall cut of 135 basis points over the next year.
Chips are running on Wall Street
In yesterday's session on Wall Street, the Nasdaq it grew by +0,2% to 14.432 points, S & P500 +0,40% to 4.622 points, new highs for the period, close to extremely important discriminating thresholds, 14.500 and 4.600 points, which should theoretically start a physiological adjustment phase.
Chip manufacturers came into the spotlight. Broadcom +9%. Advanced Micro Devices +4%. The Sox index, which contains the big names in the semiconductor industry, closed up by +3,5%, reaching its highest level since January 2022.
The markets today are focused on US inflation data (CPI). scheduled for 14pm. The data is expected to show a slight decline in November (+30% vs. +3,1%), however it will remain well above the +3,2% target set by the Fed. After the inflation data, Fed to decide on interest rates for final time on Wednesday NA expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged, but any signal from the central bank on the path of interest rates in 2 will be closely watched.
Meanwhile, consumers' short-term inflation expectations fell in November to their lowest level since April 2021, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said. Year-over-year median expectations fell for the second consecutive month, to 3,4%, from 3,6% in October. Expectations for three- and five-year inflation remained stable at 3,4% and 3,6% in October. The New York Fed explains that the decrease reflects a change in expectations on the prices of petrol, rent and university education: the three components have reached their lowest levels since January 2020.
The Yen goes into reverse
Le stock exchanges of Asia Pacific they are almost all up this morning, in the wake of Wall Street.
The index stands out Hang Seng +0,7% despite overtaking India. Unchanged CSI 300. The yuan moved little, falling yesterday to its lowest level in the last three weeks. President Xi Jinping yesterday opened the Central Conference on the Economy and Work, an annual event in which state leaders discuss growth plans for the following year, Reuters was the first to report the news tonight. The results of the meeting could hit the media later in the day.
The Japanese stock market index rose slightly Nikkei +0,2%. He put it in reverse yen, which appreciated for two consecutive sessions following rumors about a possible change in monetary policy. The cross moved to 145,4 from 146,2 at the close.
A missile disturbs oil
Brent at $76,5. Geopolitical tensions could weigh on this morning: an anti-ship cruise missile launched from Yemen, controlled by the Houthis, hit a commercial tanker, causing a fire and damage but no casualties, the US military said in a statement.
The price of thegold slides to 1985 dollars at three-week lows ahead of key US inflation data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. An eventful December so far: first gold reached historic highs at 2.135 USD as the markets bet that the Fed would cut interest rates by March 2024; then it deflated when signs of resilience in the US economy led the markets to reduce this bet.
Bpm, six billion in profits by 2026
Bpm bank aims to generate six billion euros of profit over the period 2023-2026, four of which will be allocated to the remuneration of shareholders. The last year of the plan should close with a net profit of 1,5 billion euros. The 2024 dividend amount is approximately 1,3 billion euros. The amount of the securities buyback program will be decided year by year. The company plans to deploy 50% of the current capitalization over the course of the plan.
Fastweb, shareholder with 4,5% of Fibercomp together with Tim and Kkr, is evaluating whether to maintain a stake in Tim's spun-off Netco, the company's CEO, Walter Renna, said in an interview with Sole24 Ore. “We are evaluating and discussing with KKR… If there is the possibility of continuing to work in this way, with our presence on the board, we will remain within the project,” said the manager.
