The golden season of chips is reflected in the accounts of Stm, the Italian-French company which represents one of the few European voices in the "oil of the XXI" as semiconductors are defined to underline their strategic importance. STMicroelectronics closes the first quarter with net income nearly doubled to $364 million, up from $192 million in the same period of 2020. Net revenues improved 35,2% year over year to $3,02 billion (consensus estimate: $2,927 billion), gross profit 38,9, 1,18% to 39 billion with a gross margin of 110% (+4 basis points year on year). Numbers that, who knows why, didn't prevent a sharp fall in the share on the stock market this morning, up to -XNUMX%, before the words of the CEO Jean-Marc Chéry, the shares reversed course, passing into positive territory: at 13 pm +4% to 33,28 euros.
“For the second quarter – says Chery – we expect net revenues of 2,9 billion dollars as an intermediate value, corresponding to a 39% year-over-year growth and a decrease of 3,8% compared to the previous quarter, due to the usual seasonality in Personal Electronics, and a gross margin of around 39,5%”. And speaking of the year-end outlook, he added on the conference call, “we will lead the company based on a full-year 2021 revenue plan of $12,1 billion, more or less $150 million than expected, representing an 18,4% year-over-year increase driven by robust momentum across all end markets.”
Quarterly results, second quarter outlook e an outlook for the whole of 2021 above expectations, In short. All product groups contributed to growth as demand continues to accelerate globally. In fact, growth in 2021 will be driven byincrease in requests in all final markets: +30% auto, +30% industry, +25% personal electronics, +15% communication equipment. But in light of the chip "famine" that is affecting the recovery after the pandemic, it is likely that forecasts will be revised upwards. La lack of these essential components for a good part of industrial products, it has been influencing the automotive economy for weeks: the only one Stellantis will have to give up 30 Jeeps and Rams next week in the American plants, but the shortage has already crossed the ocean, forcing the halt of the production of Jeep and Compass also in Melfi (7 thousand employees in cash from 3 to 10 May). Not to mention the first stops of appliances and smartphones.
But why this shortage of chips? And how long will it last? The trigger of the crisis it was the production difficulties of some plants in Asia to which were added the floods that put the industries of Austin and other sites in Texas out of action. But it was only the last drop of a crisis that had been brewing for some time for various industrial and geopolitical reasons. First of all, the semiconductor industry is not an industry like any other, as Georg Stieler, consultant specialized in chips, explains. “Semiconductors – he says – are probably the most complex industrial component in history. An ultraviolet machine to produce chips has up to 100 components. The accuracy required is comparable to hitting an apple on the surface of the moon."
Here is a first consideration: money is not enough (many of those allocated by China) to speed up the recovery of this sector. Suffice it to say that Beijing, despite the enormous efforts of recent years, continues to depend largely on imported chips. The Ministry of Industry calculates that at least 320 more expert operators would be needed, people with between 5 and 8 years of experience behind them, an offer that cannot be improvised. "The fact - comments analyst Stephen Gu - is that up to a year, microelectronics students were pushed towards the web by high salaries".
Then, the squeeze on the export of strategic material desired by Donald Trump, has created a dramatic situation: Huawei and other leading industries had to remedy this and on April 22 last year, Beijing's Tsinghia University, immediately after a visit by Xi Jing Ping, announced the creation of a brain school for chips . But it will take time.
It's not that America is much better off. Fueled in the XNUMXs and XNUMXs by generous orders from NASA, US industry has gradually withdrawn into research and design, entrusting the industrial leadership to the Far East, Singapore and Taiwan in the lead. Today, faced with the risk of shortage of components, we run for cover: Intel has just announced plans to set up two factories with an investment of 20 billion dollars. But it will take time to turn the balance: 80% of semiconductors currently belong to Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and China.
And that also explains the growing tension between the superpowers. Many clues suggest that Xi Jing Ping's China, after having arranged the match in Hong Kong in his own way, wants take over Taiwan, the real pearl that makes the hi-tech industry shine with its jewels, starting from tsmc, the company that is manufacturing a plant for 3 nanometer chips (ie 20 times thinner than a hair), capable of doubling computing power and halving prices. It is no coincidence that Japanese Prime Minister Suga's recent visit to Washington, the first under the Biden presidency, was dedicated to the defense of Taiwan.
And Europe? At this point the Old Continent accounts for only 10% of industry, up from 44% 29 years ago. But the EU wants to make up ground, even if it won't be easy. As Chery points out, Europe has no large consumer electronics or furniture industries to justify the effort. This is why the few big names, from Stm to Infineon, are there focus on self and energy, with good results. Even if the capitals are not those available to the big names on Wall Street or China. But let's try: on Wednesday the Minister of Economic Development Giancarlo Giorgetti signed the decree authorizing the agreement for innovation with the Lombardy and Sicily Regions for the realization of a research and development project in the microelectronic production sector.
It is, explains the Mise in a note, a project, called "MADEin4", presented by STMicroelectronics, FCA Italy, Comau, Polytechnic of Turin and CNR Institute for Microelectronics and Microsystems, which aims to improve manufacturing productivity, in line with the objectives set by the Industry 4.0 plan, through "innovative techniques and tools". We will know more soon.
