A new war front has opened in the Middle East. In a few hours, Turkey has bombed Syria twice, responding to an initial attack that arrived yesterday evening by troops from Damascus. The government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan will soon obtain the green light from Parliament to use the army along the borders between the two countries. Meanwhile, last night in Brussels an urgent NATO summit was held, which sided with Turkey, a member of the Alliance. Ankara has also asked the United Nations to take the "necessary measures" to stop the Syrian aggression. Firm condemnation of the initiatives taken by Bashar al-Assad's regime should arrive today from the UN Security Council. The Italian Foreign Minister, Giulio Maria Terzi, expressed "solidarity with the Turkish government".
What will happen now? Will Turkey's intervention push the international community to a more incisive intervention to resolve the Syrian crisis? Does Assad really have his hours numbered? We talked about it with Stefano Silvestri, president of the Istituto Affari Internazionali.
FIRSTonline – President Silvestri, can the intervention of the Turkish army be decisive for the fate of the revolt against Assad?
SYLVESTERS – Turkey is an absolutely decisive country for the fate of Syria, but it will be necessary to see what the Turks intend to do and how the international community will decide to move. In any case, we cannot think of a classic war between neighbours, even if Turkey actually intervenes in self-defense, in full compliance with international law.
FIRSTonline – So we are moving towards an internationalization of the Syrian crisis?
SYLVESTERS – It is possible and perhaps even desirable. Although Turkey is a neighboring country with Syria, the intervention could be internationalised, freed from the suspicion of a war between its neighbours, made more objective and less dangerous. I think that no one wants to invade Syria, but that we want to create an area of respect between Syria and Turkey, a protected area where the Syrian armed forces cannot enter and where the insurgents can establish their base. A bit like what had been done during the war in Iraq, in the north of the country.
FIRSTonline – How do you think the United Nations Security Council will move? Are there the conditions for an intervention by the blue helmets?
SYLVESTERS – There would be, but to date Russia has vetoed any possible intervention. Now Moscow could change its position, demanding the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syria. However, Ankara claims to be acting in self-defense. At this point I believe that the Atlantic Alliance will also have to decide something. The best solution would be a simultaneous intervention by the UN and NATO.
FIRSTonline – Could Turkey invoke article 5 of the Atlantic Pact (the one that binds the members of the Alliance to protect those who are attacked from outside)?
SYLVESTERS – Frankly, it would seem exaggerated to me. So far there have only been a few mortars and Turkey has no need to resort to article 5. It would be enough for Ankara to request the application of article 4, which provides for solidarity between the countries of the Alliance when one of the members feel threatened. In my opinion, this solidarity will exist, as long as an agreement is reached at the same time for the creation of a zone of respect or humanitarian protection. If the North Atlantic Council takes this decision, it could bring it to the United Nations as a fait accompli, simply asking it to take note of it.
FIRSTonline – Assad has repeatedly threatened to use his chemical arsenal in the event of foreign intervention in the Syrian crisis. What would happen at that point?
SYLVESTERS – If it did such a thing, NATO's intervention would be inevitable, because it would violate all international conventions on chemical and biological weapons. It would really be the beginning of his end.
FIRSTonline – Finally, broadening our gaze to the entire Middle Eastern chessboard, what are the possible repercussions of the Turkish-Syrian conflict on the economy and on geopolitical balances?
SYLVESTERS – At an economic level, I don't think the new situation will have serious consequences on the price of oil. On the political level, on the other hand, if we are truly approaching the end of the Assad regime, or in any case an internationalization of the conflict, it will be a bad blow for Iran. It will be necessary to understand if and how Tehran will try to react, also because Israel could seize the opportunity to bomb Iranian nuclear sites. At that point, despite the divisions between Sunnis and Shiites and although Iran does not enjoy particular sympathy, Muslim public opinion would be exasperated and tension in the Arab world would skyrocket. I hope Netanyahu doesn't make a similar decision.
