Only a few months ago, there was almost a percentage point separating the yields of BTPs and Bonos. Today, the differential in our favor has reduced to 0,2%: the rate on ten-year Italian government bonds stands at around 4,52% while that of Spanish bonds is 4,54%. According to insiders, overtaking, or at least catching up, is only a matter of days.
In fact, the dynamics speak for themselves in this sense: exactly one month ago the Italian spread reached 251 points. Today, after a month of ups and downs, it is at 252. Last August 9, the Spanish spread was at 280 points, today it is at 256: the gap between the two differentials, in the space of 30 days, has gone from 29 to 4 points.
But what is it that has produced this dynamic so evident? The Italian figure has remained substantially unchanged, while that of Madrid has embarked on a constant descent. To complicate the situation, the OECD estimates which draw the picture of two economies in the mirror: the GDP forecasts of the two countries for 2013 and 2014 are substantially identical and if the Italian debt weighs more, Spain pays a rate of very high unemployment, at 27,3% against 11,9% in Italy.
What, then, is the distinction between two very similar countries? To weigh, according to analysts, are reasons of a political nature. The Spanish government, despite the scandals that have engulfed the Partido Popular and President Rajoy, is walking on its own legs, reassuring the markets of its solidity. Letta's executive, already born under uncertain auspices, finds itself in these hours unraveling the most intricate skein of its short life: the discussion on Silvio Berlusconi's decadence and the consequent threats from his party, which fears a government crisis day yes and the other as well.
A discussion that comes just in the days in which the Treasury is grappling with the placement of large tranches of BoT and BTp and which risks weighing heavily on our country's coffers, since the Italian program of issues, for this year , touches 470 billion.
