Corrective maneuver worth 15 billion by the European summit on 8-9 December. Monti's promises meet the consensus of Manuel Barroso and Herman Van Rompuy. Even if they fail to reassure the markets. This morning the Btp-Bund spread has already returned above 500 bp, reaching 505. It then dropped below again, but the situation remains tense and uncertain. Piazza Affari also immediately started down by 1,54%.
The wind of the crisis fueled by German intransigence continues to blow on Europe. Waiting for the launch of the EU provisions on the audits of state budgets, a premise for the creation of Eurobonds that “must no longer be taboo”, the best news comes from Washington. IMF has announced the launch of a six-month credit line, known as the "Precautionary Credit Line", which countries in a liquidity crisis, such as Italy, will be able to draw on. The potential figure for our country is 43 billion euros, which could double if the agreement is extended to two years. The money seems little but, combined with the Fund to save States, can give good guarantees of solvency in the face of the 200 billion public bonds to be renewed in the first part of 2012.
WINTER MARKETS. Yesterday Spain had to offer 5,11% to place the Bonos at three months: something more, notes the Financial Times than the yield paid by Greece and Portugal for issues of the same type. Meanwhile, the yield of the two-year BTP today rose by more than 7%, surpassing that of the ten-year. This is the sign that uncertainty about the fate of the euro is growing in the medium-long term. The 17-year yield rose by 6,79 basis points to 500% and the spread with the German Bund returned to almost 490 basis points (XNUMX at closing)
The stock markets also suffer from the slowdown in US growth (2% versus 2,5% expected) . In Milan, the FtseMib index fell by 1,5%, the sharpest drop among European stock exchanges: London -0,1%, Paris -0,5%, Frankfurt -1,2%, Madrid -1,3 %. The disappointing macro data from the US also weighs heavily. The Dow Jones closed at -0,46, the S&P at -0,41, the Nasdaq at -0,07%. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index dropped by 0,40%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong was much worse -1,85%: signs of a slowdown in the Chinese economy are multiplying.
FORECAST. The announcement of the Monetary Fund was enough to slow down the descent of the American Stock Exchanges. The cost of funding in dollars for European banks has dropped, albeit slightly, while, after six sessions of declines, the single currency has recovered some positions. Will these notes be enough to stop the abyss of the Stock Exchanges which, in the space of a month, have burned 3.300 billion dollars of capitalization? Probably not, judging by the performance of futures on European lists, all in the red (with the exception of Stockholm), starting from the Ftse/Mib. Contracts on the American Stock Exchange in Tokyo also report a drop of 1,2%.
THE EMERGENCY. Last week, European banks were forced to borrow 247 billion euros from the ECB, the highest figure since April 2009, confirming that the liquidity crisis is now beyond danger levels. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve, faced with the fall in the value of debt securities held by banks, has ordered a stress test for 31 American financial institutions in January. Finally, on Friday, the Treasury auction: 8 billion Btp (including three-year bonds) and Ctz (2 billion).
Mario Monti is pressing for a quick solution of the Finmeccanica case (yesterday -0,2% after an attempt to recover Monday's heavy losses). «The Prime Minister – reads a note – is closely following the evolution of the situation of Finmeccanica and expects a rapid and responsible solution. In this context, he agreed with the competent ministers to check with the company itself that the necessary initiatives are being prepared ». That is, the resignation of the suspects from the judiciary- But the president Pierfrancesco Guarguaglini released, in response, a note in which he defends himself against the accusations of the Rome prosecutor's office that is investigating him. The number one of the defense group expresses "confidence in the judiciary" but denies having ever created black funds, having paid politicians or parties and specifies that Lorenzo Cola has never been a "close collaborator" of him. Yesterday Marina Grossi, CEO of the subsidiary Selex Sistemi Integrati and wife of Guarguaglini, gave a spade to the request for resignation sent to her by the CEO. of the holding company, Giuseppe Orsi.
In Piazza Affari, the sales hit banks in particular, which are heavily exposed to the devaluation of Italian government bonds. Banco Popolare fell by 5,8%, Unicredit -4,1%, MontePaschi -3,3%, Intesa -2,4%, Popolare Emilia -3,9%.
The choice of successor of Corrado Passera "It is up to the Supervisory Board, we as shareholders know nothing, I am convinced that it will be a joint result," said Angelo Benessia, chairman of the Compagnia di San Paolo. But the president Giovanni Bazoli has not yet called the extraordinary meeting of the CDS from which the chosen one will have to leave.
Another black session for Fondiaria-Sai - 4,8% to 1,07 after falling to the new all-time low of 1,061 euros. Since the beginning of the year, Fondiaria Sai's stock market loss has exceeded 70% and the company has now capitalized less than 500 million euros, also including savings shares. A big problem also for Unicredit, the company's second shareholder: at this rate Federico Ghizzoni will have to proceed with new devaluations of the portfolio.
Only Banca Popolare di Milano moved up, with a vigorous recovery of 9,9% which put an end to a decline that had lasted for six consecutive sessions with a loss of 32%. For many analysts, however, the stock is destined to rise above the 30 cents threshold in the short term. Despite the disappointing outcome of the increase (81,7% subscribed), the guarantee offered by the lenders on unexercised shares, together with the leading role assumed by shareholder Andrea Bonomi, will support the stock. Bonomi's shopping would also be useful for the banks in the consortium, given that only with the stock above 30 cents will it make sense to auction the option rights (the auction date has yet to be set).
Lastly, among the financials, particularly affected by sales were Azimut with a drop of 6,3% and Mediolanum -2,5%. Net decrease also for StM which lost 5,3% following the fall of Nokia down by 8,8% after the rumors about a negative trend in sales of the new Windows Phone 7 mobile phone lost 4,8% to 1,07 .1,061 after falling to the new all-time low of XNUMX euros.
