"Oil prices should be much lower." So tweeted Donald Trump at the beginning of the week, so it is happening under the pressure of the growth in the production of American shale oil and the failure of OPEC's efforts to contain extraction.
Brent oil traded in Asia at $65,5 a barrel this morning, down 0,3%, yesterday it closed down 6,5%, the largest daily negative change in three years. North Sea oil lost twenty dollars in about three weeks, from $85 to $65, reaching its lowest since March of this year.
US crude fared no better, traded at around 55 dollars. And, consequently, the prices of energy stocks are down: -2,4% on Wall Street, -2,2% this morning in Tokyo. In Piazza Affari, the decline spied Saipem down by 3,04%, Eni and Tenaris -2,8%.
Driving crude oil down are dual supply and demand concerns. Demand was cut again yesterday by OPEC, for the fourth consecutive month: these are the effects of the global economic slowdown, especially that of China. On the other hand, supply could fall less than what would be needed to keep prices in balance, as the White House is forcing the situation to demonstrate that the embargo on Iran does not cause tensions on prices.
CONSUMPTION HOLDING DOWN, CHINESE SQUARES DOWN
In the meantime, the stock lists are marking time.
This morning, China's stock markets fell (Hong Kong -0,1%, Shanghai -1%) after the publication of a series of macroeconomic data: some of these confirm that the picture is deteriorating. Retail sales rose by 8,6% in October from +9,2% in September: economists had expected +9,2%. Industrial production instead accelerated, +5,9% last month, slightly more than expected. Investments in real estate were also above expectations.
Elsewhere in Asia, Tokyo's Nikkei and Mumbai's Sensex are unchanged.
Wall Street closed yesterday evening with the Nasdaq unchanged. Weighted by the energy sector, the Dow Jones lost 0,4%. S&P500 -0,1%.
HIGHLIGHT DAY FOR BREXIT
A weak start is expected for the European lists, protagonists yesterday in the finale of a backlash. Two topics for the day.
The Brexit match was unlocked yesterday. But the most difficult exam for Theresa May occurs today: the prime minister will have to obtain approval for the plan from her government, a not easy undertaking given the presence of nine ministers in open disagreement on the compromise signed with Brussels.
MANEUVER, THE IMF SPEAKS OF RECESSION RISK
The other hot topic concerns the Italian manoeuvre.
The Italian government, in the letter sent to Brussels tonight, says no to the requests to amend the budget law received from the European Commission. Minister Giovanni Tria reiterates that, "The level of the deficit at 2,4% of GDP for 2019 will be considered an insurmountable limit". The only changes, compared to the previous document, concern the sale of state assets: "To accelerate the reduction of the debt/GDP ratio and protect it from the risk of any macroeconomic shocks, the government has decided to raise to 1% of GDP for 2019 the goal of privatizing public assets. Collections constitute a safety margin" and will make it possible to achieve a more marked decline in the debt-GDP ratio of 0,3 points this year, 1,7 in 2019, 1,9 in 2020, 1,4 in 2021 bringing the ratio from 131,2% in 2017 to 126,0 in 2021".
BUSINESS CENTER OPENS AT -1,6%
The government received a double rejection. The IMF has forecast that the maneuver will lead to a reduction in growth to 1% and has warned of the risk of recession.
The first reaction of the markets was also severe. The spread opened to 315 points which is equivalent to a 3,5-year yield exceeding XNUMX%.
The first prices of the Milan Stock Exchange mark a drop of 1,6%.
TURNOVER IN TIM: ALTAVILLA ARRIVES
In Piazza Affari yesterday was Tim's day +1,5% on the day of the turnaround at the top. On Sunday the company board will choose the new president who will probably be Alfredo Altavilla, former head of the EMEA area of Fiat Chrysler.
NEGATIVE RECORD FOR BANCA CARIGE
Negative record for Banca Carige -48,5% in the few minutes of trading after a long suspension. The decline is the expected reaction to the strong dilution envisaged by the recovery plan. In the spring it will be necessary to carry out a capital increase of 400 million to take over the subordinated bond that will be issued in the next few days by the solidarity fund. Today the capital of Carige is around 100 million.
The other banks are recovering. Unicredit +1,7%, Entente +2%. Mediobanca rises by 1%.
FCA AND MONCLER REBOUND
Fiat Chrysler (+3,7%) and Exor (+3,6%) rebound. Brembo-2%. Pirelli unchanged. The threat of US tariffs on cars imported into the US has reignited. The US president, Donald Trump, is expected to meet with his team of trade experts today to discuss whether or not to proceed with these long-buzzed tariffs. According to Bloomberg, a draft of a study by the Commerce Department is circulating in the White House, the conclusions of which are unknown.
Strong growth for Moncler (+3,6%) and utilities: Italgas +1,3%, Terna +1,4%.
Out of the main basket Tiscali +30% which signed a new agreement with Fastweb
