The signing of the agreement between Greece and the Eurogroup and the soft signals arriving from the Fed favored the advance of the bull on the markets. China contributes to complete the favorable picture this morning: the PMI index (50,1 against a forecast of 49,5) signals a better-than-expected trend in industry, even if exports continue to fall (to a 20-month low ).
Little move Tokyo +0,1%, stable on the highs for 15 years. The other Asian Stock Exchanges rose (Asia Pacific index +0,6%). On Wall Street, the Dow Jones index advanced by 0,51%, the S&P 500 by around 0,3%. The Nasdaq closed up 0,14%, its tenth consecutive plus. The president of the American central bank, Janet Yellen, reiterated to Congress that, before raising interest rates, the Fed will change the adjective "patient" within the forward guidance. This means that for at least two meetings (18 March and 29 April) the cost of money will not be raised. The US economy is showing signs of improvement but the unknown factor is the excessively slow growth of wages.
BUSINESS SQUARE AT THE HIGHEST SINCE JUNE. ATHENS +9,8%
The European lists celebrated the happy ending of the negotiations with Greece. Piazza Affari closed the eighth consecutive session on the rise, reaching the maximum for eight months: the FTSE Mib index gained 0,84%, consolidating the violation of the 22.000 point quota (22.149) at the top since last June 20th. The other Stock Exchanges were all positive: Frankfurt gained 0,67%, Madrid 0,68%, Paris 0,50% and London 0,54%.
The Athens Stock Exchange benefited the most from the approval of the Eurogroup, closing the session up 9,81% at 937,96 points. The yield on the 8,4-year Greek government bond falls to 55%, the Greece-Germany spread drops 800 basis points to 5. The progress on the 200-year maturity is more pronounced, where the spread contracts by as much as 1.056 basis points to 10,5, for a yield of XNUMX%.
The finance ministers of the euro area approved the reform plan proposed by Athens which should lead to the recovery of 7 billion euros even if, as Mario Draghi underlined, "given the very limited time available it was not possible for Athens to elaborate proposals actions and commitments on growth, public finance and financial stability".
On the revenue front, it promises to fight tax evasion, smuggling and corruption: the plan should lead to the recovery of 7 billion euros. As regards the sale of public assets, a crucial point of the memorandum signed with the Troika, Athens undertakes not to withdraw the privatizations already completed and to respect those for which the tender has been launched, but will review those not yet launched, aiming to improve the long-term benefits to the government.
EIGHT DAYS TO QE: BTP AT LOWS. TODAY THE AUCTION BOT
Eight days are left before the launch of the European Quantitative Easing, which will start on 5 March. But the markets are already positioning themselves on the new scenario which benefits debt securities from the "periphery" of the euro area while the German Bund weakens, whose yield has risen to 0,37% (+2 basis points). On the contrary, the BTP strengthened: the yield fell yesterday by 6 basis points to new historic lows (1,46%). The Bund – BTP spread narrows to 106 basis points (-6 basis points), a level not seen since April 2010.
The Spanish ten-year bond continues to do better: spread at 99 basis points and yield at 1,37%. But on the 5-year horizon, however, the situation is reversed: the BTP yields 0,57% against 0,62% in Spain. In this context, the 6-month Bot auction (7 billion) will be held today. Yesterday the Italian Treasury placed all the inflation-indexed BTPs with a sharply declining yield to 0,62%, while the CTZ rate reached a new all-time low of 0,219%.
Citigroup reports that, among the 33 central banks they monitor, as many as 18 have implemented easing maneuvers in the last 3 months (3 QE, 14 rate cuts and FX easing on foreign exchange).
FINMECCANICA SELLS ANSALDO AND REDUCES DEBTS (-15%)
White smoke for the agreement between the Japanese Hitachi and Finmeccanica, down by 0,9% after the announcement. The Japanese group bought 40% of Ansaldo Sts (yesterday +6,06 at 9,37 euros) at 9,65 euros per share and will launch a tender offer on the remaining 60% at the same price. The operation will cost Hitachi up to 1,9 billion euros while it will entail a 15% reduction in debt for Finmeccanica and a capital gain of 250 million. After the latest operations, CEO Mauro Moretti said at the press conference, the group's debt "is reduced by 600 million at the end of 2015 to 3,4 billion". “On the occasion of the investor day on 19 March in London – Moretti said again – we will positively review the guidelines”. And he added: “The operation could not have been more calibrated. I'm sorry for those who didn't believe it."
Since the beginning of the year, Finmeccanica has gained +41%. 42% of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg (20) recommend buying the stock. The average target price is indicated at 9,80 euros. Meanwhile Hitachi strengthens its presence in Europe where it competes with the top three world train manufacturers: the Canadian Bombardier, the German Siemens and the French Alstom.
Among other industrialists Fiat Chrysler -0,3%, StM +0,6
WDF, BENETTON CONFIRMS: WE HAVE MANY OFFERS
Second day of increases for WorldDuty Free (+6%). Yesterday the news was that the Swiss Dufry would have made an offer to the Benetton family to buy the majority stake. Today, the Swiss have a competitor in the Korean Lotte, which is also alleged to have bid. Gilberto Benetton explained that Edizione, the controlling holding company, has received several expressions of interest, but no concrete offers.
INTESA, 56% IN THE HANDS OF INTERNATIONAL MANAGERS
Monte Paschi (-1,4%) allows itself a break after the frantic run of the last two weeks (+86% since February 12th). JP Morgan lowered its target price from 1 to 0,65 euros (neutral). Intesa moved little (+0,14%) on the day of the hearing in the Chamber of Gian Maria Gros-Pietro. 56,12% of the bank's capital, the chairman of the management board said on the occasion, is in the hands of foreign investors. Last December, 27,37% of the bank's shares were held by Italian foundations, 9,11% by Italian retail investors and 7,4% by Italian institutional investors.
Yesterday in Parliament there was also a hearing of the CEO of Mediobanca (+0,24%), Alberto Nagel. Initiatives on the bad bank in Italy, he said, are useful for accelerating the trend of recovery in loans, "but realizing it with a prevailing public role is now out of date" while rules and guarantees would instead be needed to facilitate private projects.
UniCredit +1,4%. Among other securities in the sector, Banco Popolare (+2,21%) announced yesterday evening that it had successfully placed a 7-year covered bond with institutional investors for an amount of 1 billion euro. Ubi Banca +1,20%, Bpm +0,36%. Ubs holds 2,013% of Mediolanum +0,91%. Banca Generali +2,5%.
A2A STILL ADVANCES. IMPROVE SARAS FINANCE
Positive day for utilities and energy. Enel (+2,6%) and Enel Green Power (+1,8%) are up. A2A's march continues (+2,7%). Among oil stocks, Eni +1,3%, Saipem +2%. Tenaris also recovered (+2,26%). Saras +1,7% after the announcement of the results. The fourth quarter of 2014 closed with adjusted profits of 18 million euros (5,3 million a year ago) on revenues of 2,29 billion (2,9 billion a year ago). The financial position at the end of December was positive by 107 million, it was negative by 8 million at the end of 2013.
INCENTIVES FOR FALCK RENEWABLES +2,1%
In the rest of the list, luxury is good. Yoox +3,3%, Ferragamo +2,2%. Among the mid and small caps, Falck Renewables stands out +2,1%. The company has announced that it has obtained GSE incentives for the production of electricity from its hybrid plant (thermodynamic and biomass) at the Rende plant in Calabria. Since the beginning of 2015, the stock has gained 22%.
