For the third consecutive year Spain is preparing to record an economic growth decidedly higher than that of the main European partners. 2016 should close with an increase of approximately 3%, similar to that of 2015 (+3,2%) which in turn had more than doubled that of 2014 (1,4%).
In the first two quarters of this year the contribution of consumption proved to be decisive: with an average increase of 3,7% y/y and a contribution to growth that has risen to 2 pp The recovery in consumption is benefiting from a increase in real incomes which has no equal in the euro area, a zero inflation rate and gradual decrease in the unemployment rate. Despite the robust improvements in the various macroeconomic indicators, there is still a long way to go to recover pre-crisis levels.
on spending aspirations families Spanish weighs is the need to reduce the still high debt ratio (104,7% of income, among the highest levels in the EMU), both the reduction of real estate wealth. Despite eight consecutive quarterly increases (+3% on average), house prices are still about 40% lower than their peak in 2007.
I signs of recovery in the real estate sector there is no shortage: for several quarters, jobs in the construction sector have been on the increase, as have investments. The trend in building permits returned to positive territory, as did sales also driven by the purchases of British, French, German and Swedish companies. Mortgage credit to Spanish households is still declining, but at a slower pace than in the past.
More defined the recovery of household financial wealth, especially the net one (+3,4%), which benefits both from an increase in financial assets (+1,4%) and from progressive deleveraging. In 2015, compared to disposable income, the debt ratio decreased to 104,7%, 30 pp less than the peak of 2009, while wealth is at 179%, 4 pp more than in 2014.
