Pedro Sánchez is the new hero of the European left, the man who managed to make the socialist party triumph Spanish, which until a few months ago seemed dying, and to give hope to the so-called "traditional parties" in view of the European elections on May 26th.
A victory that gives the PSOE leader what he lacked until yesterday, namely popular legitimacy. Sánchez had come to the government automatically - as number one in the opposition - after the no-confidence motion presented against Mariano Rajoy and the other parties never missed an opportunity to remind him of this. Now, after the 28,7% (123 seats) won at the polls, six percentage points more than in the elections 3 years ago, he will be able to return to Moncloa with his head held high, with much wider electoral support than his rivals. Suffice it to say that the People's Party, the second party based on the results, stopped at 16,7% (66 seats).
After the celebrations, however, it's time for calculations. The majority in Congress is equal to 176 seats: it would therefore seem that the PSOE does not have sufficient numbers to be able to rule alone. However, from the second vote, a relative and not an absolute majority is enough to gain confidence in the government. And this, to some extent reopens the game.
On the one hand, in fact, it is true that the support of Unidas/Unidos Podemos, with its 42 seats, does not guarantee the coveted absolute majority and therefore would require a broader coalition with the smaller parties, primarily Catalan secessionists. On the other hand, an agreement with Ciudadanos (57 seats) would unblock the impasse but, according to what has been repeated several times by both sides, nobody wants to hear about a "government marriage" between the two political forces.
Sánchez will therefore have to do the math well, but above all play his cards well. Second El PaisArmed with a broad electoral consensus that the others cannot question, the PSOE will take it easy, trying to examine all the options and above all to guarantee the governability of a country that has already voted three times in three and a half years. Therefore, most likely the outcome of the European elections on 26 May will be awaited– in Spain we also vote in some important town halls – before getting to the point.
Sánchez, as a first choice, will try to govern alone, forming a one-color socialist government. "We believe we have had more than enough support to be at the helm of this boat", Deputy Prime Minister Carmen Calvo said in an interview with Cadena Ser, who after admitting that the collaboration of the coalition led by Iglesias during the previous months "has helped a lot in a progressive sense", he added that the PSOE prefers to "continue on the same line", i.e. to govern alone as it has done in the last ten months, with the external support of the other parties.
The problem is that Unidas Podemos, this time around, might not be willing to support the socialists without a reward. Pablo Iglesias, writes El Pais, "he clarified both publicly and privately that this time he will not give the PSOE any free support and wants to join the government".
The negotiations, as mentioned, will be very long, also because the real danger is that of returning to the polls again, a possibility that everyone intends to avoid, or of leaving the ball in the hands of the centre-right coalition formed by PP, Ciudadanos and Vox, another option that Sánchez does not even want to consider. His last resort will be to ask for the support of the Catalan parties, which he does not trust, however, which he is not willing to make secessionist concessions, and which have already caused the fall of his government.
Winning for Sánchez was easy, trust in parliament could be within reach, governing could become much more difficult.
