Pedro Sanchez's victory in the primaries of the PSOE, the Spanish socialist party, has raised more than one concern. Above all, he fears for the stability of the Rajoy government and for the reopening of a long phase of stalemate and political uncertainty. But there is also concern for the future of the Spanish socialist party, a party which in Spain has a long tradition and culture of government, and which is now it could be pushed by the Sanchez leadership towards extremist and populist positions in an attempt to overtake Podemos and reassert itself as the only reference party of the Spanish left. A race to the left that could lead to a split in the PSOE itself, with the detachment of the more "governmental" and moderate part and with the minority drift of the remaining part - a prelude to the definitive implosion of the socialist party as we have seen in France.
Of course, this is all speculation – we've seen how unpredictable politics can be today. But, given the strains of this congressional campaign, and considered Sanchez's rather aggressive and not very conciliatory leadership style, the rift might not be such a remote hypothesis, above all if the PSOE were really faced with the hypothesis of an alliance with Podemos and the nationalist forces.
Yet, as frightening as it may be, the hypothesis of a split and even an eventual disintegration of the PSOE could also have positive effects, for Spain and for Europe. On the one hand, the populist embrace of Podemos with a slice of the old PSOE (if it worked, because Podemos is already struggling to keep its various currents together and is very contentious), it could give Pablo Iglesias' training that minimum of political and institutional culture which he has so far failed to show that he knows how to develop. On the other hand, a space could be created for the aggregation of all those liberal-democratic forces wishing to give the country a more modern policy by implementing some necessary reforms on the social and institutional front. In short, space could be created for a Spanish Macron – this was what Albert Rivera tried to do a few years ago with Ciudadanos, but without being able to really split the traditional parties. However, things could change in the future.
Of course, it's not immediately easy. The more moderate soul of the PSOE which opposes Sanchez is weighed down by figures of the past (from Gonzalez to Zapatero) which make its capacity (and real will) to innovate less credible. And we don't see new figures capable of emerging in a short time. Susana Diaz, the candidate who lost to Sanchez, has shown that she is not up to it. Similarly, the best part of the popular party struggles to bring out new figures in the face of the granite presence of Rajoy who still holds the party in his grip. But as much as the old leaders can dominate their parties, they find it increasingly difficult to keep the electorate in their grip, today more than ever unpredictable and in need of novelty and credibility.
A need that a few years ago took the path of the most destructive populism, but which now seems to be accompanied by a need for positive reconstruction. After all, it is this need that he has curbed the extremists and nationalists in France, Austria and Holland. And that could soon arrive in Spain, generating a force for positive change that the country, despite the economic recovery, still needs a lot.
