Mariano Rajoy, the president of the Spanish government at the head of the Popular Party of the PP, has decided to focus on the point: the growing consensus of Podemos and, above all, of the centrists of Ciudadanos, responds with deeds. Expected economic growth of around 2,5%, a significant drop in unemployment (although still very high among young people), important investments from abroad, recovery of tourism and real estate.
If this strategy will be sufficient and successful, we will know at the end of the year with the general elections. If Rajoy is reappointed, then the ghosts of this new wave of parties that have risen from below, on the wave of popular dissatisfaction due to the great depression of the economic crisis, will be erased. Otherwise the prime minister will have to deal with them and try to govern the country in the future with an enlarged coalition.
We will see. Meanwhile, Spain looks at what happens in the different regions and the elections that will take place in some of them. In Andalusia things still went well for the socialists (but that was to be expected given that it is a historical fiefdom of the PSOE), while Podemos did not break through and did not convince as it was to be expected.
Maybe even the Spaniards want to return to a situation of normality. The political experiments grown on the thrust of the dissatisfaction of the base have served to give a jolt to the system and to bring politics closer to the population. All this has made it possible to change the values in the field and to reunite the country, but perhaps the function of these movements is temporary. And it's already on its way to sunset.
Now that the emergency situation seems to be behind us and despite the broad consensus that the two new parties still collect in the polls, one wonders if in a race for the end of the year which is still politically long and exhausting, Podemos and Ciudadanos will resist and they will have their say.
Certainly PP and Psoe will not remain with their arms folded. The first by "magnifying" the many reforms that have made it possible to overcome the crisis (from the rescue of the banking system to new employment contracts), the second by emphasizing the social values of a left that under the Zapatero government has conquered many rights.
The Spanish political framework is therefore evolving and making predictions today about its future is somewhat premature. Of course, compared to 5 years ago the situation has changed profoundly, if only because the autonomist impulses seem to have weakened at the moment and because the arrival on the scene of Ciudadanos and Podemos has certainly offered new references.
From outside observers we believe that the evolution of the economy, unemployment and general sentiment will determine the choice of the year-end vote. Knowing full well that the business, banking and financial establishment are the best supporters of Rajoy and the Spanish centre-right. A Mariano Rajoy who has well understood that the game is not played only within the borders of the Iberian Peninsula, but also and above all in Brussels and at the European Central Bank.
