Madrid continues to calculate, but uncertainties remain. Before asking for help from the ECB, Spain wants to be sure that Frankfurt's purchases of government bonds are really capable of bringing down yields. And above all it is necessary that, in exchange for the intervention, the Eurotower does not demand new austerity measures. The request for aid so if there will be it won't arrive before the end of the year. This is the message that emerged today from an interview with the Spanish prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, who spoke during a radio broadcast.
“We covered almost all of the bond issues planned for this year – underlined Rajoy -. If the country is forced to finance itself at high interest rates for a very long period, then we will have to resort to aid, but it is important to know what the concrete initiative of the ECB would be”.
The Premier later explained that one spread more reasonable between Spanish and German interest rates would be around 200 basis points. Today he travels around instead at an altitude of 430, with yields on 4,7-year Bonos at XNUMX%.
As for a possible tax increase, Rajoy assured that the Executive has not yet taken any decision on the matter. On the contrary, the Premier even "hopes" to be able to lower the tax burden starting from 2014.
However, these evaluations are formulated on the basis of economic forecasts that differ greatly from those of the European Union. As reported by the Spanish newspaper El Pais, Brussels is much more pessimistic than the government in Madrid: according to a draft by the EU Commission, the Spanish GDP in 2013 it will contract by 1,5%, against the +0,5% expected by Madrid, while in 2014 it will grow by only 0,5%, not the 1,2% expected by the Government. For the current year, the Union expects a contraction of 1,6%. The Executive's forecasts instead stop at -1,5%.
Discordant numbers also regarding the deficit/GDP ratio. According to EU calculations, the figure will settle at 8% in 2012, 6% in 2013 and 5,8% in 2014. But Moncloa's objectives are respectively 7,3%, 4,5% and 2,8 .XNUMX%.
