There is no peace for the countries of southern Europe. Spain, Greece and Portugal are in trouble again. Their political-economic vicissitudes are once again worrying Europe, albeit for different reasons: Spain has been without a government for more than four months and the risk that the next elections, now practically certain, will again end in a stalemate ( according to the latest polls the absolute majority is far from all) is very high. For its part, Portugal has failed to respect the commitments made in the Community, despite the fact that politically it has managed to find a solution by entrusting the Executive to the socialist leader Antonio Costa who has been leading a fragile left-wing government since 26 November which survives thanks to the external support from the Bloco de Izquierda and the CDU.
Greece, on the other hand, is engaged in yet another negotiation with the EU to obtain a new tranche of aid by next July, the month in which Athens will have to repay 3,6 billion euros of debts to domestic and foreign creditors. The problem is that the Greek coffers could empty much sooner. For this reason, the Ministry of Health would have sent a letter to the country's hospitals asking them to move all their liquidity to a special account of the Central Bank.
SPAIN TOWARDS NEW ELECTIONS
Felipe VI yesterday began a third round of consultations, after the failed attempt to appoint socialist leader Pedro Sanchez. To date, there does not seem to be a solution to the political stalemate that began with the elections of 20 December 2015 and the institutional hourglass is about to run out. If an Executive cannot be found by 2 May, the new electoral round cannot be avoided. The problem is that not even that, scheduled for June 26, could solve the Spanish impasse. Based on the latest polls, there is a real risk that the same result will be repeated: the four main parties merged into a range of 10 points and no absolute majority (176 seats).
GREECE SHORT OF CASH
Athens must once again face the ghost of default. The state coffers could be emptied by mid-May and without the release of a new tranche of aid, Greece will not be able to repay the debts due in July. Despite the spending review attempts put in place in recent months (-1,34 billion public primary expenditure in the first quarter of 2015) the situation is once again on the verge of the abyss. For this reason, on April 21, the Ministry of Health sent a letter to hospitals in which it requested them to transfer all their liquidity to the central bank.
In this context, Alexis Tsipras continues to negotiate with the former Troika in the hope of freeing up the 5 billion in resources needed to pay off the 3,6 billion in loans due in June and give some oxygen to the state coffers. The EU and the IMF have asked the Greek government to envisage a series of safeguard measures (new taxes and new cuts) of 3 billion euros which would automatically take effect in 2018 in the event that Athens fails to meet the objectives relating to the primary surplus which , according to the agreements, will not be able to exceed 3,5% of GDP.
EU: POSSIBLE SANCTIONS AGAINST SPAIN AND PORTUGAL
In the month of May, the European Commission will give its opinion on the trend of the finances of the Member States. While Italy will find out whether Brussels will grant the much-needed flexibility, Spain and Portugal could face hefty sanctions.
Madrid recorded a deficit of 2015% in 5,1 compared to a target of 4,2%. Lisbon did even worse, closing the year with a deficit of 4,4% against a forecast of 2,5%.
At this point therefore, for the first time in its history, the EU Commission could decide not to turn its gaze away from the other pact and impose the "penalties" envisaged by the Stability Pact which establishes economic sanctions of up to 0,2% of GDP for countries that violate EU standards.
