What emerges from the analysis is a Spain that you don't expect “Spain, a land of opportunities” conducted by the CEC (Consejo Empresarial para la Competitividad) and presented in Milan in the context of a road show that will take the data and the outlook elaborated by the Spanish entrepreneurial association around the world.
Even the title of the report would seem rather audacious, for an economy - the fourth in the eurozone - which certainly does not sail in easy waters nor does it seem to be associated with the term "opportunity", even if today the auction of government bonds it was a success. And instead the Cec, chaired by the CEO of Telefonica Cesar Alierta and which includes the cream of Iberian bankers and managers (including the president of Acs and Real Madrid Florentino Perez), offers more than one starting point that is anything but trivial.
First of all, the recession should ease already in the third quarter of this year, while already in the last three months the GDP will start to grow again by 0,3%, positively influencing the creation of new jobs. It is precisely this forecast that seems more optimistic, and that clashes with the official data of Eurostat and theOECD, which has indicated that Spain will be able to create 1 million new jobs but only by 2020. “We hope to be able to do it sooner – said prof. Fernando Casado, director general of the CEC – thanks to the reforms that are going in this direction. However, the country's problem is structural unemployment, unfortunately inherited from the real estate bubble and which gives us a labor market where it will be difficult to bring unemployment down to below 16-17%, a level that is still decidedly too high”.
Currently Madrid travels on 27% (in the phase of greatest growth, however, it did not fall below 9%) - not to mention the dramatic figure on youth unemployment - which corresponds to around 5 million people without a job. “Too many, even if they were to drop to 4 according to OECD forecasts – explains prof. Casado -: the fact is that retraining workers in the construction sector is very difficult. And then there is the issue of immigrants, who number 5 million (in a country of barely 40 million inhabitants, ed) and who, despite having lost their jobs, do not return to their country of origin, especially if they are North Africans, contenting themselves with the subsidy of unemployment and burdening the state coffers".
Yes, that construction sector, whose boom has been repeatedly singled out as the culprit of the subsequent crisis. A sector from which, however, Spain is trying to free itself, as emerges from the analysis of the Consejo Empresarial. And so it turns out that innovative companies generate 73% of sales and 65% of jobs, which Spain does better than Europe and North America in terms of scientific production (+7,1% in the period 96-2010, EU +4,5 .3,5%, North America +XNUMX%), which graduate workers are 38% compared to 30% of the European average (Eurostat data), and that 4 of the 20 best business schools in the world carry the yellow and red flag. Or that the knowledge-based economy is growing, as is the attractiveness for foreign investors, apparently not at all affected by the crisis: according to the World Investment Report, Spain is the fifth country in the world that has seen its attractiveness for foreign capital, behind only China, the United Kingdom, Germany and France.
In practice, this important item has hardly been affected by the impact of the recession: according to data from the Bank of Spain in the period 2008-2012 almost 25 billion euros were invested by foreign capital in Madrid and its surroundings, compared to 26,9 billion in the period indicated as pre-crisis. An image that is still healthy, despite the implosion of the construction sector (the one that grew the most in the period 2006-2012, at an annual average of +21%), and not only thanks to tourism.
Another surprise, in fact, is that while the tourism sector continues to export for 43 billion in 2012, but growing "only" by 6%, the whole universe of non-tourist services, in particular culture, insurance, IT and corporate, saw exports soar by 44%, yielding 63 billion euros in the past year. This is thanks in particular to the dimensional growth and internationalization of the companies: the Spanish multinationals, again according to the Cec, are increasing their business at a faster rate even than in Germany and the UK.
In fact, they employ 2,5 million people, they have a turnover of 500 billion euros, 40% of them operate in more than 21 countries worldwide, while 12% cover more than 100 worldwide in strategic sectors such as telecommunications, engineering, infrastructure, transport, food and fashion and obviously also tourism. But there are not only multinationals: it is also the Spanish brand that continues to march, as evidenced by the fact that the franchises of Iberian brands abroad have grown by 30% in 4 years reaching 272, thanks to the presence in 108 countries, particularly in emerging markets.
Attachments: CEC_ presentation report.pdf
