The markets are seeing the possibility of finding a solution to the political crisis that opened up in Spain following the December 20 elections, from which no party emerged with a majority in its pocket, receding by the hour.
After Mariano Rajoy's failed attempts, the ball is now in the hands of the young socialist leader Pedro Sanchez. The PSOE will have until March 2 to succeed in the desperate attempt to form a government and thus gain trust, then the road will become even more impervious.
Yesterday the official agreement between the PSOE and the centrists of Ciudadanos arrived which, while on the one hand it was welcomed since it represents a first step after months and months of political deadlock, on the other it raises further doubts about the real possibilities of finding a solution.
The numbers still aren't there. On the contrary, from this point of view the situation becomes even more complicated given that the agreement with Ciudadanos is in fact an alternative to Podemos, with which negotiations have been continuing incessantly for more than a month. Albert Rivera's party currently boasts 40 seats, that of Pablo Iglesias 65. In any case, the sum of their seats with those of the PSOE (90) would not have allowed Sanchez to obtain a majority.
At this point therefore, in order to obtain a simple majority in Moncloa, at least the abstention of Podemos would be necessary, which however announced the breakdown of negotiations with the socialists on the possible investiture of Sanchez next week. "The agreement between Sanchez and Rivera is not compatible with us," said Podemos number two Inigo Errejon, according to whom Sanchez thus "thwarted a historic opportunity for millions of Spaniards."
We also recall that an absolute majority will be required for the vote on 2 March, which has now practically become a mirage. It is more probable that the socialist leader will focus on the second simple majority vote (March 5). In any case, the first vote will finally start the institutional clock. If by 3 May no executive obtains confidence, the dissolution of the Cortes will proceed and new political elections, possible starting from 26 June.
As the months go by, the markets are starting to get more and more restless about the Spanish political crisis. The main concern is that Madrid will frustrate the years of sacrifices made to date, jeopardizing the country's economic stability and credibility.
The final No by Podemos triggered sales on the Madrid Stock Exchange which closed the session with a red of 3,07%, the worst result among European lists.
