From London to Madrid. On June 26, three days after the referendum that decreed the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union, Spain will return to the vote to elect the new government, after six months of chaos and failures. An electoral appointment which, after the surprise Brexit, takes on particular relevance for the entire continent, representing the first real test of the political repercussions that the British consultation could have on the other EU Member States.
THE DECEMBER 20 ELECTIONS
Madrid has been without a government since the general elections of last December 20th. Six months ago, the response from the polls stunned an entire nation. Not only because for the first time in its democratic history the Iberians found themselves facing the specter of ungovernability, given that no party was able to obtain an absolute majority (176 seats), but also because the bipolarity that held up the country from decades has definitively waned, leaving room for a four-party system that has repeatedly demonstrated its fragility.
AN ECONOMY WITH LIGHTS AND SHADOWS
At the basis of the transformation, the global financial crisis which also had a disruptive effect in Spain. Today, despite a GDP growth of 3,2% in 2015, the Iberian economy is still characterized by profound weaknesses: an unemployment rate above 20%, a strong job insecurity, a public deficit which in 2015 reached - 5,1%. Political stability therefore represents a fundamental necessity to consolidate a recovery that has come after years of sacrifices and austerity.
THE SURVEYS
On Sunday 26 June, the same protagonists who made the previous electoral campaign and the first half of 2016 glowing will be playing it all out: Mariano Rajoy for the Partido Popular, Pedro Sanchez for the PSOE, Pablo Iglesias for Podemos and Albert Rivera for Citizens.
Compared to six months ago, however, there is a fundamental difference: the agreement signed on 13 May between Podemos, Izquierda Unida and other left-wing formations. According to polls, the newly formed Unidos Podemos coalition has managed to make a historic overtaking of the socialists, reaching 24,9% and becoming the second political force in the country. If the elections confirm this result, it could be the end of Pedro Sanchez.
Scrolling rapidly through the “rankings”, the PP is still in first place in the surveys with 29,4% of the preferences. A slightly higher percentage (+0,7%) than that obtained last December 20, but insufficient to achieve an absolute majority. Third is the PSOE with 21,1% (-1%), fourth is Ciudadanos with 14,8% (+0,9% compared to 20-D)
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
In the event that the results of the polls are confirmed by the results of the polls, once again, none of the competing parties would be able to obtain the necessary majority to govern. A scenario that according to most analysts is more than likely. At this point, therefore, we are already thinking about the new government alliances.
Rajoy could therefore once again attempt an agreement with the socialists, trying to form a "traditional coalition" that would guarantee the stability the country needs. But the PSOE electorate may not look kindly on an alliance with the "famous enemy", especially after the numerous No pronounced by Sanchez from January to today. For this reason, there could also be a minority government of the PP that could seize power thanks to the abstention of the socialists.
Alternatively, according to some newspapers, a progressive executive formed by the two main left-wing parties (Psoe and Unidos Podemos) could arrive. In this case, however, the percentages obtained at the polls become fundamental because the union may not be enough anyway.
On the eve of the elections, therefore, the games are still open.
FROM BREXIT TO SCANDALS
However, the Brexit effect could contradict analysts' forecasts. To date, predicting how and to what extent the UK vote will affect the Spanish electorate is not an easy task. The Iberian newspaper ABC launches two opposing hypotheses: on the one hand, the citizens, terrified of the consequences of the "leave" could decide to vote for "security", thus returning to the two traditional parties that the crisis had severely damaged from an electoral point of view. On the other hand, the parties of the most extreme left, Podemos in primis, could benefit from the new strength acquired by European populism with the victory of Brexit.
Lastly, the impact that the two scandals that hit the PP on the one hand and Podemos on the other could have on the electoral round of 26 June should not be underestimated. The first has to deal with the recent allegations relating to the alleged attempt by Interior Minister Fernandez Diaz to have fabricated false evidence against some representatives of Catalan independence parties on the eve of the 2014 referendum (since cancelled). Pablo Iglesias, for his part, has not convinced the Spaniards about the funding received from Venezuela and Iran.
