Tough years are expected for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit. Or at least that's what the rating agency analysts believe Standard & Poor's. These three banks are in fact, according to the US agency, “riskier” than their rating implies. Influencing this judgment are "the tensions in Greece, together with the economic recession in various areas of Europe and fears of contagion".
"The performance of bond prices and credit default swaps on Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit leads us to believe that investors consider these banks more risky than the opinion expressed by S&P", explains the agency. For this investors could "re-price the risk".
Standard & Poor's also points out that none of the ratings on the three banks "reflects sovereign support in the event of financial tensions and that all three institutes have a negative outlook". This “implies a one in three chance of a possible downgrade in the next two years”. Expectations are also worsened by "the considerably higher cost of financing and the worse growth prospects throughout Europe", which jointly "will exert pressure on bank profits".
The agency finally expects that non-performing assets for these three banks will accumulate in 2012 and 2013 at higher rates than in the previous two years, reflecting the weakening of the Italian economy”.
In Piazza Affari, however, investors don't seem to have been shaken by the news. A few minutes after the opening, the Unicredit share gained 1,35% to 2,55 euros, Intesa SanPaolo rose by 1,37% to 1,039 euros and Banca Mps 0,47% to 0,21 euros.
