“Despite signs in the second quarter of an absorption of the recessionary phase in the Eurozone as a whole, a recovery worthy of the name still appears to be a long way off”. This is supported by Standard and Poor's in a report dedicated to the euro area.
The study, while noting how the Eurozone remains "mired in the second phase of recession in five years", leaves some hope by stating that the crisis "may have bottomed out in the second quarter of 2013", based on the most recent data.
Hence the estimate by Jean-Michael Six, chief economist of S&P for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, according to which "economic growth will gradually gain momentum from the last quarter of this year and into 2014" although "a recovery worthy of this name still appears distant”.
The aggregate data for the entire euro area hides, as usual, significant differences at the individual country level. In fact, the rating agency made new distinctions, raising the growth estimates for 2013 for Great Britain and at the same time cutting them for Italy (to -1,9% from the previous -1,4% forecast in March) and Germany to +0,4% from the previous +0,8%). Indeed, in the words of the report, some countries "are doing worse than others in terms of investments, falling debt, real exports, volumes and rates of bank loans". At the same time, the inflation forecast for the whole area was reduced.
