Il 2022 it will be a substantial year stability after the good recovery in 2021 and also for ratings, expectations are of invariability or, if anything, of improvement, these are the estimates by Standard & Poor's contained in its annual report on the Italian economy announced this morning at a press conference. However, they are emerging not a few risks, mostly exogenous, which will have to be faced by companies, above all manufacturing companies, to ensure that they do not cause excessive pressure on the margins of companies.
“2022 will be a year of substantial stability, in line with other European countries, but the real challenge will be to consolidate the situation by coping with the risks due to a series of factors: energy growth, rising inflation, the persistence of the bottleneck in the supply chain and evolution of the pandemic” says Renato Panichi, Senior Director Corporate Ratings of S&P Global Ratings
“These factors in the course of 2022 could create margin pressures, which however at the moment have not been affected thanks to the economic leverage” says Panichi. “On the other hand, companies will have to focus on investments, for which companies will eventually be able to rely on good levels of cash flow or by resorting to an increase in debt”.
S&P's forecasts a 2022 growth economy by 4,7% (revising downwards its previous estimates of +6,4%) substantially in line with the estimated growth for 2021 of +4,4% (revised by 5,5%).
The surge of energy costs electricity and gas, even by 4 times, associated with a strong and even more penalizing volatility, is creating pressure above all on energy-intensive companies (from the cement sector to the iron and steel sector to the paper industry and even the food sector).
This criticality is annotated with the difficulties of supply of materials that is taking place in Europe and the USA.
These types of tensions “should see a slowdown in the second half of 2022, in which case corporate margins could consolidate and improve,” Panichi says.
Furthermore, the problems associated with the evolution of the economy remain in the background pandemic, the possible reduction of the financial conditions linked to the forthcoming decisions of the ECB and the costs of ecological transition.
Furthermore, it must still be considered that the workers' salaries have not yet been adjusted for growth in other costs, but that could change, says S&P's. If on the contrary – in a negative scenario – were supply shortages and high levels of inflation, especially from energy, to persist, this could have repercussions on consumer and business confidence and damage Italian profitability in 2022 and 2023, says the rating agency report. “This would translate into revenue growth limited to 3% versus 7% growth indicated by our baseline scenario. EBITDA margins would be down 50 bps in 2022 and 2023 compared to 2021, but remain."
As for assessments of the rating company on Italian companies, the negative outlook in 2021 dropped to 4% against 40% at the end of 2020, mainly thanks to the recovery of the business.
75% of Italian corporate ratings have remained stable above their pre-pandemic level, while 21% of companies show a positive outlook on the back of improving sovereign rating prospects.
In 2021 S&P's increased the rating by 15% of the companies under its evaluation, while reducing it only to Telecom and Saipem
