The "curse" of the rating agencies is making itself felt again: in Piazza Affari (Ftse/Mib at 20471 -0,19%), the Parisian CAC is also down (-0,14%), while the Dax scores + 0,08%.
Complicating the path for financials was the stance of Standard & Poor's this morning warning that the rollover (semi-automatic extension) of the Greek debt could lead to a "selective default." "It is our opinion - remarked today's note from S&P - that each of the two financing options proposed by the Fédération Bancaire Francaise (FBF) would lead to a default according to our criteria".
The objective of the plan carried out by France is to achieve a rollover of over 30 billion euros of Greek bonds by the banks with the transformation of maturing securities into thirty-year bonds with lower interest rates than the current ones. The plan has already received support from French banks, the most exposed on the Greek front and last week the German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schauble, announced that German financial institutions will also contribute to the rescue of Athens by rolling over 3,2 billion of maturing securities. Standard & Poor's last month downgraded its rating on Greece's creditworthiness to “CCC” from “B”. Regardless of whether or not the French proposals are implemented, S&P continues to remark that Greece's creditworthiness continues to be weighed down by uncertainty about Athens' ability to honor its commitments with the EU and the IMF.
On the contrary, Unicredit CEO Federico Ghizzoni replies at a distance, an agreement on the renewal of the Greek debt by private creditors is "indispensable" according to the Unicredit CEO, Federico Ghizzoni, adding that "we will participate according to what we will be required". According to Ghizzoni, S&P's warning is “a technical interpretation, too technical. Let's hope this doesn't happen." "An agreement is essential for Europe and not just for Europe," said the manager.
However, the "system banks" lose ground: Intesa (-1,83%) and Unicredit (-1,56%) in Milan, Société Générale and BNP Paribas in Paris, Barclays and UBS itself which is preparing to welcome the mastiff Axel Weber who opted for the Swiss bank by snubbing the race for the succession to Joseph Ackermann at the top of Deutsche Bank. The Stoxx banking index loses 1%.
SOCGEN PUSHES MPS RECOVERY
HSBC PROMOTES THE POPULAR BANK
The impact was less strong for other banks, starting with Ubi (+2,86%), which is managing the recent capital increase, up to Banco Popolare (+0,56%) which has returned to "neutral" from underweight" according to HSBC. Mps (+4,24%) is at the center of hedging after the massive sales linked to the negotiation of the rights to the increase. Société Générale has raised the rating for Mps to "buy" from "hold" while cutting the target price to 0,75 euro to take into account the effects of the capital increase. The broker writes that the bank will be adequately capitalized after the recapitalization. Furthermore, the effect of the restructuring process has not yet completely exhausted itself, while the joint venture with Axa in the bancassurance sector should support the growth in revenues. Asset management stocks are also down, waiting to digest the impact of the reorganization of taxation on financial income announced together with the Finance Law: Mediolanum loses 1,2%, Azimut 1,2.
JP MORGAN LOWERED GENERALI'S TARGET TO 16 EUROS
IN THE EVENING THE CIRIO JUDGMENT: GERONZI RISKS 8 YEARS
Fonsai is still swinging, now in poitive terrain (over plus 1 percent) also due to the arrival of the Amber fund which, according to Il Sole24Ore, would aim to reach 3,5% of the capital. The Antitrust decision on the capital increase and the obligation to sell the stake in Generali (-1,15) will be communicated on Wednesday 6 July.
Meanwhile JP Morgan has lowered the target price of Generali from 18 to 16 euros. The sentence for the collapse of the Cirio group could arrive in the evening: the judges of the first criminal section of the Rome court entered the council chamber a few minutes ago. In the hearing of 2 March last, the prosecutors had asked for a total of 221 years' imprisonment, referring to 31 defendants accused in various capacities of fraudulent, preferential and distractive bankruptcy, and of fraud (prescribed crime). The highest penalties requested by the representatives of the public prosecution concerned Sergio Cragnotti (15 years' imprisonment), his son-in-law Filippo Fucile (12) and the former president of Banca di Roma Cesare Geronzi (8).
PRADA EXERCISED THE GREEN SHOE
ANOTHER 329 MLO DOLLARS FOR MIUCCIA
Prada raises 2,5 billion Hong Kong dollars, about 321 million additional dollars through the exercise of the 'greenshoe', as part of the placement of the title of the fashion house on the Asian stock market. The company has announced that its 'bookrunners' have exercised the subscription option for another 2,5% of the capital, which brings down the stake of the parent company Prada Holding BV to 80% of the shares. Prada raised $2,14 billion through its IPO, which saw the stock price at the low end of its indicated range. Prada lost 3,5% in Hong Kong, although it remains up about 18% since its trading debut on June 24.
FIAT LOSES SHARE AGAIN IN EUROPE
BUT CHRYSLER MAKES A BOOM IN THE USA: +30%
Fiat was positive, rising by 1,13%. In Europe, the auto sector gains 0,5%. Exor rises by 0,7%. Data on car sales in Italy in June were released: market -1,7% with 169 units and Fiat -3,6% with a market share of 29,8%, down slightly from last year. Fiat was also weak in France (market -12,6%, Fiat -23,5%) and Spain (market -31,4%, Fiat -50%).
Chrysler did very well in the USA which, with 120.394 vehicles sold, marks a growth of 30% from last year compared to a market growing by 7% to 1,053 million units still penalized by the negative performance of Japanese manufacturers. Today, writes the New York Times, the White House will dictate the new rules on the characteristics of clean cars, the subject of a discussion with the Big Three of Detroit: by 2050 carbon dioxide emissions must be halved.
ENI: NEW ONE-YEAR POSTPONEMENT FOR THE KASHAGAN TI WELLS
LIMITED THE IMPACT OF THE EU CUT ON ROAMING COSTS.
The eternal soap opera of Kazakhstan continues, in which Eni (+0,42%) continues to play an important role. The Daily Telegraph reported on Friday that the start of the exploitation phase of the Kazakh maxi-field of Kashagan could be postponed by a year compared to the scheduled date, ie end of 2012/beginning of 2013. The consortium of companies owned by Eni which works on development of the oil field would be delayed in the construction of the artificial island on which most of the extraction process should take place. To be able to meet the deadlines set, the companies should have opted for the launch of an emergency plan which envisaged, on a provisional basis, starting production on the mainland.
Telecom Italia (-0,89%) under the eyes of Equita, following the news from the Financial Times that during the week the European Commission will announce a plan to reduce international roaming telephone tariffs. The provision should affect voice, SMS and data tariffs and the latter could be reduced by 75% within 2014. "We believe - says Equita in today's note - that international mobile roaming is worth less than 1% of the Telecom group's turnover" .
Furthermore, again according to the press, the European Union has invited the Italian Agcom to impose more aggressive mobile termination rates, as the Italian ones are higher than the average. "The deflation brought about by the regulator therefore continues, which adds up to that brought about by the strong competition in the sector", conclude the experts, confirming the reduced recommendation with a target price of 1,12 euros. Meanwhile, the share on the Ftse Mib gained 0,21% to 0,959 euros.
TODAY THE INCREASE OF ANSALDO STS
SOUTH AMERICAN DEAL FOR ATLANTIA AND SIAS
Atlantia to the attention of Intermonte, after the signing of the closing of the agreement signed on 18 April with Acciona. The deal provides for the purchase by Atlantia of 50% of the share capital of Vespucio Sur and Litoral Central 2011 at a price of 290 million and an enterprice value of 430 million. “We remind you that – explains Intermonte in today's note – as per the agreements with Sias, at the end of various steps Autopista do Pacifico (controlled by Atlantia and Sias) will use part of the proceeds from the stock market listing expected for the autumn to purchase the assets at the same price of 290 million. Closing as expected, in the future the operation should allow Autopista to achieve interesting operating synergies”, conclude the experts, confirming the outperform recommendation with a target price of 19,80 euros.
The second tranche of the free capital increase of Ansaldo STS starts today: 20 million new shares will be issued, 1 new share for every 6 held. The operation adjustment factor is 0,85714286. Ansaldo Sts is a "buy" for Nomura analysts who reduce the target price from 13 to 11 euro following the issue of 20 million new shares for the second tranche of the capital increase. The broker expects an update of its 2011 guidance on July 26, when the second quarter results will be presented.
TURKISH SHOPPING FOR RECORDATI MOSCOW
CAMPARI'S RACE DOESN'T STOP
Among the mid caps, Maire Tecnimont rose by 2,5%.
Of note is the exploit of two already very popular stocks, now lapsed: Seat +11,7% and Tiscali +7%. As far as Seat is concerned, the increase seems to confirm the rumor according to which the creditor banks have given their consent to the company to renegotiate the debt on the basis of the conversion of the lighthouse junior bond into equity (about 40% /50% of the owners of the bond would agree). However there would be the approval of private equity funds and a particular shareholders of CVC.
Also noteworthy was the Recordati operation (+1,5%) which completed an important acquisition in Turkey: the acquisition of 100% of the capital of the pharmaceutical company Dr. Frik Ilac, ensuring the group a strategic asset .
Intermonte raises the estimates for 4-2012 on Recordati by 2013%, raising the target price to 9,5 euros from the previous 9, maintaining the outperform rating.
Backtracking by Terni Energia -2,3%. during the revision of the decree, he would have presented again the proposal already rejected by the council of ministers, to introduce a 30% cut to all incentives for renewable energy, with the aim of reducing the cost of the energy bill by 3-4% . The sector, especially the photovoltaic one, has already suffered heavy reductions in incentives and delays in the approval of the regulatory framework, which have blocked the activities of many companies for several months. We therefore believe it is unlikely that this proposal will be approved after being rejected by the cabinet last Thursday.
Finally, Campari is strong (+0,44%) despite the alarm over the increase in Russian customs duties on Italian wine, higher than those applied to its Spanish and French competitors. “If this were confirmed – explain the Equita analysts – we would not rule out a negative impact on sales volumes, however limited, if one looks at the price increase in absolute value. In view of an update of the target price, we believe that the share, with growth prospects now even higher than those of its competitors (EPS growth rate for 2011-12 +16%, against +12% of that of peers ), lower financial leverage and tax savings on sustainable goodwill, you deserve to trade at least in line with your competitors in terms of Ev/Ebitda”, conclude the experts, maintaining the buy recommendation and target price at 5,7 euros.
