The Formula 1 World Championship has just ended with Verstappen's thrilling overtaking on Lewis. But for the four-wheeled world, the real challenge comes alive now on the wave of another historic overtaking: in August, for the first time, sales of electric cars in Europe have surpassed those of diesels. And in 2025, according to Bloomberg analyses, they will cost less than internal combustion models. Meanwhile, as early as 2022, 500 different e-car models will be available on the global market, thanks also to the new batteries launched on the market with an average energy density growing between 4% and 5% per year.
In short, the true world championship will be won by whoever knows how to best adapt to it a rapidly evolving market, or in what appears more as a challenge of social and political systems than in comparison between technologies. Confirmation comes from the United States where Joe Biden does not hesitate to challenge the wrath of allies with a bad clause included in the Build Back Better bill under discussion in the Senate. The law provides that US purchases of battery-powered and hybrid cars will enjoy a $12.500 tax credit. But out of this figure, $4.500 will go only to those who buy a car manufactured in US companies that have union structures. Another 500 dollars of the subsidy money will go to those who buy cars with Made in USA batteries.
In short, the project cuts out the import cars but also those produced by the Japanese and Germans in the factories of the southern United States, hitherto resistant to the union. Not only. Factories in Canada and Mexico are cut off. “It was better for us not to sign the renewal of NAFTA,” declares the Canadian trade manager, recalling the tough stand-off with Donald Trump. In reality, the protectionist pressure of Biden's America does not appear very different in this matter from that of the tycoon. And the protests were not long in coming. The German ones are vibrant: Berlin's incentives for electricity do not provide for discrimination of any kind, as Elon Musk acknowledged by suggesting that Congress drop the issue. Last year, German manufacturers assembled over 740 cars in the US, employing more than 60 workers who, ironically, voted against union entry at Volkswagen in Chattanooga despite the support of top management. The reactions of Toyota and the other Japanese are also robust. The replies arriving from Paris and Turin were more contained: among the beneficiaries of the US measures are the Jeeps and Rams leaving the Michigan plants.
We will soon see if Washington, which has not yet canceled the tariffs on steel and aluminum imposed at the time by Trump, will agree to review the choice or if we will go to a conflict that promises to be truly "electric" because it coincides with the final takeoff of the new car development model which will undoubtedly impose great sacrifices on the sector in Europe.
The solution identified by European Union “Fit for 55” package plans to halt the production of cars with petrol or diesel engines by 2035. An almost obligatory move to defend one of the few global leaders in the Old Continent (already under attack from China), but which could result in a heavy cut in employment: 500 fewer jobs, only partially offset by 226 new jobs if Europe manages to develop a supply chain in the production of batteries for electric cars by 2040. It is the result of a study by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) which has already prompted the suppliers' association to propose alternative solutions, such as a mixed technological approach, which allows the use of synthetic fuels or other solutions such as hydrogen to avoid an acceleration on the electric which will in any case have significant effects on the components.
It is no surprise that, in this context, the big names in the car industry are looking for ways out to tackle markets that promise to be hot. Volkswagen, in search of capital to develop mega projects in the electric sector, the Porsche IPO is starting (with the return of the founder's heirs to the scene). Daimler has already carried out the demerger of Daimler Truck which, among other things, has the construction of the eActros electric truck in the pipeline (parked in front of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange on the occasion of the IPO), from Mercedes which just last Thursday obtained the license to activate the self-driving system on the road that will be mounted on the S-class in 2022. The goal, for both companies, is in any case to ensure double-digit profitability for the next few years.
But will it be possible? It also tries stellantis, playing the connectivity card. By 2030, Tavares said, the group expects to sell additional services worth 20 billion a year thanks to connected cars, a bit like in the case of Apple, which boasts stable revenues from apps. Will it be possible? It's another of the many bets around the future of the car, a sector that loves the thrill of overtaking.
