One week after the last Political Observatory, SWG publishes new polls, this time taking into consideration the real variable of these political elections, the possible "descent into the field", just to quote an ugly and overused expression, of the current premier Mario Monti.
Confidence in Monti, despite the fact that in the last survey 60% of the interviewees declared themselves against his candidacy, it has risen in the last few days from 35% to 38%. The entry of the prime minister would greatly change the balance of forces at stake, bringing a dying center back to life and eroding the consensus of all the main lists vying for the vote. A single list headed by the prime minister, and which included the centrist formations of Pierferdinando Casini, Luca Cordero di Montezemolo and Gianfranco Fini, would prove, in voting intentions, to 15,4%.
To certify the impact of the premier is a simple fact: the same formations, without the Monti list, they would be at 9,4%. In particular, the UDC would drop by half a percentage point (from 5,4% to 4,9%), as would Fli, which would continue its downward trend, falling to 1,7%. On the other hand, a discrete leap forward for Towards the Third Republic, from 1,7% to 2,8%.
In addition to assessing Monti's impact on the electoral match, the most important novelty is the decline of the three major Italian parties. The Democratic Party, in fact, dampened the Primaries effect, lost a percentage point within a week, going from 31,1% to 30,1%. The 5 Star Movement also fell, from 19% to 18,5%. For the grillini is the third consecutive weekly decline, a slow but constant erosion which, perhaps, in addition to the internal problems of the movement, could testify to the progressive withdrawal of the appeal of an anti-political proposal as the elections approach.
But if Athens cries, Sparta certainly doesn't laugh, because the PDL not only doesn't restart, but retreats. Despite Berlusconi's unbridled presence on television, in a search for consensus that resembles a begging, the Popolo della Libertà drops from 16,5% to 15,8%.
Waiting for Monti, or maybe Godot, and his press conference on Sunday, it is more the “non-vote party” that is growing” which, between undecided and abstained, rises to 40%, gaining, so to speak, 5 percentage points.
