It is difficult to obtain a clear balance, which goes in a precise direction, from the SWG Political Observatory of the month of November. The political movement, in fact, follows different directions, which emerge in the examination of the four main indicators: trust in the government, the intentions of votp, the credibility and the perception of their political position according to the voters.
Going in order, one of the few firm points it is the continuous decline in trust in Prime Minister Mario Monti (down to 36%, close to the lows of June), which pays, above all, for the growing intolerance (endemised in Europe) towards Austerity policies, aggravated by the uncertainty shown by the Government regarding some measures, in addition to the rather widespread feeling of a mandate that exactly one year from its inception, it would have already accomplished its mission.
As for voting intentions remains the center-left allied area formed by Pd is stable (+0,5% and first party at 26%), Sel and Psi, an alliance also corroborated by the debate on the primaries, while, again on the left, there is the collapse of the IDV (from 5,5% in October to 3%), waiting to understand what Di Pietro will choose to do.
Instead, continue there slow but constant erosion of consensus towards the Center parties, such as UDC and Fli (-0,5% for both), who still look like characters in search of an author. Even the PDL struggles to get out of its fog and loses half a percentage point, while the Northern League recovers a little, going from 5,5% to 6%, but above all it seems to have resumed its function of reference for part of the electorate northern. The right-wing alignment, despite the drop in its main protagonist, gains something, rising to an overall 27,5%, thanks to the growth of minor parties.
It goes up further the 5 Star Movement, from 19,5% to 20,5%, confirming itself more and more as the second Italian party.
As far as credibility is concerned, however, the first square is occupied by M5S and PD, paired at 35%. All the others are detached, with the first large group ranging from 23% of SEL to 19% of the UDC, passing through 21% of PDL and a minimum IDV. Still behind Lega (15%) and Fli (14%).
Also interesting is the data on the perception of the political position of parties in an era in which categories such as "right" and "left" fade, but do not disappear. The survey is divided into two items, the perception of voters and that of citizens.
Beyond the UFO represented by Grillo, which makes its non-placeability its flag (and its strong point), the voters of many parties (Pd, Pdl and Lega) perceive them to be on more moderate positions compared to other citizens , while for others (Sel and Fli) the opposite is true. For IDV and UDC, on the other hand, there is a substantial correspondence in the reception of citizens and voters.
Attached is the text of the November SWG Political Observatory
Attachments: Osservatorio_Politico_SWG_11_2012.pdf
