The survey company SWG, in its Political Observatory in May, analyzed the results of the opinion polls carried out immediately after the elections, which allow us to understand the type of reaction that has arisen in the face of the new political situation. The result, already partially certified by the polls themselves, is that we are inexorably witnessing the opening of a new phase of politics in Italy.
Indeed, the bell jar in which the traditional parties – including the Northern League – took refuge in order not to suffer the reality of the outside world seems to have broken The start of the Monti government seemed to have allowed the necessary ambiguity to think only of a suspension of the political framework previous; the current elections have sanctioned, however, the end of an era. Even if partial, these Administratives have shown all the elements of the closure of a phase and the need for a new design. Starting with the Grillo phenomenon, but not only.
Here are the main findings of the research:
- The decline in Monti's approval makes the government "human". and forces him to measure himself with reality; consent is not, in fact, to be snubbed but indicates the ability to do things shared, at least by a large majority;
- All the leaders, after the elections, have less approval, except Bersani and Grillo. The secretary of the Democratic Party has the confirmation of the overall strength of the party, the new politician is the winner;
– Coalitions: centre-right, centre-left, third pole, are now prehistory;
– The economic crisis begins to be experienced by citizens as endemic;
– The PDL, the Northern League, the centrist area are in clear difficulty and need new strategies; the Pd manages to hold up and to show itself as a reference point of a certain solidity. For all, choices and proposals that are understandable by voters are required.
The Cricket Phenomenon
Research continues to probe the gap between the official positions of the parties and their electorates. It is not a habit, but the need to demonstrate that the readings that the leading groups make of political society are dangerously partial. AND the dissonances between parties and voters are very often more frequent than the similarities.
Beppe Grillo blows the ram's horn and the walls of Jericho collapse. So he sees his action towards the parties in these administrative elections. And he launches the challenge to heaven: the next political elections. The parties, who immediately rallied against him, after the ballots they will have to think about what the success of the 5 Star Movement means.
Grillo responds to needs that are completely present in the country's electorate: replacement, commitment, cleanliness. However, as he proceeds, he will have to take into account that currently the Italian electorate, in addition to the request to stir up too stagnant waters, demands concreteness. The research is unequivocal, all those citizens who are reporting dissatisfaction with the state of things are not satisfied with suggestions but ask for answers, solutions and perspective. If the Movement is able to move along this path, it will meet the expectations of the population and strengthen consensus - perhaps even beyond the difference between North and South that occurred in these elections - otherwise it will carve out an important but limited stimulus function.
But where does this new figure of leader find the most attention? In which political field? We are assisted by the analysis of the segment of voters who trust him; evaluating the political self-positioning of the citizens, it can be seen that they tend their ears from all areas, with a slight prevalence of the centre-left sector. For the Movement, it reveals an entirely interesting potential to work on. In detail, of the 35% of interviewees who say they place a lot or a lot of trust in Beppe Grillo, 37% are left or centre-left voters, while only 28% are right or centre-right voters (including the League, therefore). 21% declare themselves not located, and only 14% belong to a central consensus area.
Read all the Swg research
Attachments: Osservatorio_Politico_SWG_MAGGIO.pptx.pdf
