Electoral polls, as we know, must always be taken with a grain of salt because the electorate is mobile and many voters have not yet decided whether and how to vote and finally because it depends on how the specific polls they are led. But Alessandra's Euromedia polls Ghisleri have always been considered highly reliable, both for the recognized professionalism and for the independence of the Ligurian pollster. His latest surveys are surprising and highlight four novelties: 1) according to the interviewees, the real novelties of this electoral campaign are two, albeit for very different reasons: on the one hand, the Melons and on the other calenda; 2) after a long head-to-head, if we voted today, Brothers of Italy would be the first party in front of the Pd; 3) the Third Pole by Carlo Calenda and Matteo Renzi is clearly on the rise and has overtaken what remains of Silvio's Forza Italia Berlusconi; 4) between the League, which is still ahead, and the Five Stars there is an ongoing head-to-head match whose final result remains to be seen.
But let's examine the news point by point.
WHY MELONI AND CALENDA ARE CONSIDERED THE REAL NEWS OF THIS ELECTION CAMPAIGN
According to the latest reports by Ghisleri, Giorgia Meloni and Carlo Calenda are, for different reasons, considered the two real novelties of this electoral campaign. Why? Meloni because she is a female leader - which is a novelty of no small importance in stale Italian politics - and because, apart from a B-series ministerial position in the first Berlusconi government, she has never been prime minister and has never held positions of relevant government. The novelty of Calenda, as well as in his attempt to undermine the bipopulism of the right and left, is instead considered as such because the head of Azione has been a leader for a short time and has never been prime minister, despite having been minister of industry in the government Renzi.
MELONI'S BROTHERS OF ITALY IS IN FRONT OF LETTA'S PD
The duel between Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy and Enrico Letta's Democratic Party is naturally the mother of all electoral battles, also due to the effect of the Rosatellum which rewards coalitions. Even if, contrary to what Meloni tries to have you believe, the first party will not necessarily be the one in charge of forming the next government because the practice dictates that the Head of State, in conferring the office, takes into account not only who has taken the most votes but also and above all of those who have the best chance of garnering the majority in Parliament. In any case, according to the latest surveys, Meloni's party would have surpassed the Democratic Party, settling at 24,6% against 23,1% of Letta's party.
CALENDA AND RENZI OVERBIKE BERLUSCONI
But the most surprising novelty of Ghisleri's latest surveys is the overtaking of the Third reformist pole, made up of Calenda's Action and Renzi's Italia Viva, which in recent days would have surpassed Forza Italia. The Third Pole is currently attested to 7,4% against 7% of Berlusconi who is probably paying for his subjection to the League and the exit of the moderate wing of his party, represented above all by the ministers Mara Carfagna and Mariastella Gelmini who not by chance they passed with Calenda.
HEAD TO HEAD BETWEEN THE LEAGUE AND THE FIVE STARS
Also interesting is the duel between Matteo Salvini's Lega and Giuseppe Conte's Five Stars. For now, the League has the advantage with 12,5% in its pocket against 12,3% of the Five Stars but the battle is very open and the Captain seems to have lost the enamel of the golden years while Conte, forgetting that he was twice Prime Minister, leverages on the residual populism of the Five Stars, who have lost the governing wing of Luigi Di Maio.
