Just over a month to go 31 May, date on which the The government will have to issue the decree of the President of the Council of Ministers and decide how to proceed with the spin-off of the utility that manages the national gas network, Snam. In fact, Snam is now 50% controlled by Eni (in turn 30% state-owned). Of this half, 20% would be sold on the market. Of the remaining 29%, there are two options at stake: either the transfer to Cassa depositi e prestiti (70% controlled by the Treasury) or the sale to Terna, the company that manages the electricity grid in Italy.
A few days ago the Financial Times he explained that the possible sale of Snam to the CDP would be seen by foreign investors as a sort of nationalization and would discourage foreign investment, which the country needs more than ever at the moment. The English daily, on the other hand, pronounced itself extremely favorable to the Snam-Terna merger – reminiscent of the 2002 National Grid operation – and which according to analysts could bring synergies of up to 110 million.
However, some have arisen controversy regarding the assertion, reported by FT, for which Terna would need of a capital increase between 1,5 and 2 billion euros to proceed with the purchase of 30% of Snam (which would be worth, at yesterday's closing value, more than 3,5 billion euro). Well five financial reports they belie this claim, declaring the hypothesis of a capital increase by Terna is "unrealistic". which has liquidity of 2,5 billion and could increase its resources up to 1,5 billion through a "leaseback" operation (asset securitization). On the other hand, they agree on the synergies of at least 100 million euros that would derive from a Terna-Snam merger.
Banca Akros – "We believe it is a political game, difficult to predict, but in any case we exclude that Terna will need a capital increase".
Kepler – “We believe that the carotlarization of some portions of the network (1,5 billion), together with the 2,5 billion in credit currently available, would make the purchase of Snam feasible” without a capital increase”.
ubs – "Although the final decision is in the hands of the Italian government, a part of control in Snam is a plausible scenario".
Centrobanca – "According to our estimates, Terna could complete this agreement without a capital increase as the Group has financial flexibility guaranteed by almost 2,5 billion of credit lines and could sell around 1,5 billion of selected assets to a Spv".
Falls – “The agreement is political but Terna's involvement would make sense because it would allow avoiding an outlay by the government (or by Cassa depositi e prestiti) and therefore, we believe it is worth analyzing such a scenario”.
In Piazza Affari, around 10,40 am, the Snam share dropped by 0,50% to 3,56 euro while Terna was almost equal (-0,07% to 2,808 euro).
