The Syrian GDP has recorded from 2011 to today a severe decline caused by the impact of the civil war on private consumption, investment and exports. The presence of foreign investors has been drastically reduced by the interruption of industrial activities and agricultural production, not to mention the sanctions imposed at an international level, which have led to a severe decline in exports (-46% in 2013 compared to the previous year). The continuation of the violence has thus affected the channels through which the country accumulates hard currency (from 19,5 billion dollars at the end of 2010 to an estimated 2,5 billion in 2013). In particular, oil exports (estimated at 87,000 b/d in 2010 before the tensions began) have drastically reduced since the introduction of international sanctions in 2011. At the same time, the local currency continues to weaken (from 1USD: 50SYD in early 2011 at 1USD:200-240SYD on the black market), given also the ban on the use of dollars in internal commercial transactions dictated by fears related to the growing dollarisation of the economy.
Despite this, SACE's focus is on how the hypothesis of a military intervention in the country has had a limited impact on the international price of oil. In fact, Syria is not one of the main producing countries (it represents about 0,4% of world production), nor is it a central hub for transit. The peak reached at the end of August (the highest value in the last six months) is linked to wider instability of North Africa and the Middle East: in the observation period there were in fact interruptions in the production of in Libya, a worsening of the level of security in Egypt (in particular of the Suez Canal) and in Iraq (the second largest producer among OPEC countries), where Syrian developments are fueling new tensions in relations between Sunnis and Shiites. There has been an increase in the activity of terrorist groups from Syria who coordinate the activities of the rebels against the Assad regime and organize attacks in Iraq, causing a sharp increase in civilian casualties (July was the bloodiest month since 2008) And attacks on oil infrastructure.
In this scenario, is the Lebanon to be the country most exposed to the consequences of a protracted crisis in Syria, starting from the friction between the various religious confessions, which affect domestic institutional balances, with profound repercussions on the historical ties between the two countries, to the growing social pressures triggered by the presence of around 700 Syrian refugees (out of a population of around 4 million ). And it is precisely on this theme that the SACE focus places the emphasis, given theexplosive impact across the region, with increasing pressures within the destination countries, both in terms of social stability and the sustainability of public finances. In Lebanon and Jordan, where the majority of refugee flows flow (respectively 18% and 8% of the local population), a weak fiscal position already weighs on the economy. The proximity of the Syrian conflict also negatively affects tourist flows and could represent a deterrent for foreign investment in neighboring countries.
Here then is that Italian trade in Syria is no exception, recording a marked decline in recent years: in 2012, with the intensification of hostilities and the adoption of increasingly stringent international sanctions, trade between the two countries decreased by 84% compared to the previous year with a reduction 'Italian exports to Syria by 73% during this year, settling at 19 million euros. The most affected are the sales of refined energy products and instrumental mechanics (respectively -99% and -81% compared to 2011).
