Jannik Sinner could return to world number 1 in 2025The Italian tennis player lost the scepter at the end of the intense final of the 2025 US Open against Carlos AlcarazThe Spaniard prevailed 6-2, 3-6, 6-1, 6-4, winning his second Slam of the season and, after 65 consecutive weeks (455 days) of Italian domination, he regained the top of the ATP rankingsThe new rankings see: Alcaraz at 11.540 points, Sinner at 10.780 points and Zverev in third place with 5.930 points.
A chasm separates the top two from the rest of the circuit: 760 points separate Sinner and Alcaraz, a margin that isn't insurmountable but is complicated by the end-of-season schedule, but which leaves the challenge open: when can Sinner reclaim the ATP throne?
Alcaraz's comeback and the never-ending challenge with Sinner
After 455 days of reigning supreme, the Murcian made the decisive leap forward thanks to results in Cincinnati and New York. This comeback was made possible by the ranking system, which only considers points from the last 12 months: those from the previous year expire and are replaced by new ones.
If Sinner had shone in the United States in 2024, this time it was Alcaraz who seized the opportunity, turning the tables. But the rivalry is just beginning and will be played out tournament after tournament.
Sinner has many more ATP points to defend
Looking at the calendar from now until the end of the season, the situation is clear: Sinner has to defend many more points compared to its rival.
- Sinner: 2.880 points expiring, including the titles in Shanghai (1.000) and at the ATP Finals (1.500).
- Alcaraz: just 950 points to defend.
A gap that, on paper, makes the Murcian's task much easier, while the South Tyrolean will have to confirm practically his entire 2024 schedule to avoid losing further ground.
When does Sinner play? The tournaments scheduled
Here's how the Sinner-Alcaraz battle will unfold in the coming months:
- September 19-21 – Laver Cup (San Francisco): Alcaraz will return to the court here after withdrawing from the Davis Cup match against Denmark due to physical and mental fatigue.
- September 25th - October 1st – ATP 500 Beijing: Autumn debut for Sinner, who defends the final (330 points) lost last year against Alcaraz.
- September 24-30 – ATP 500 Tokyo: different choice for the Spaniard, who will play in Japan against a competitive draw (Fritz, Draper, Shelton).
- October 1-12 – Masters 1000 Shanghai: the first real possible head-to-head matchup. Here, Sinner defends the title he won in 2024 against Djokovic, while Alcaraz restarts from the quarterfinals (200 points). A meeting between the two would only be possible in the final, on Sunday, October 12th.
- October 15-18 – Six Kings Slam (Riyadh): A luxurious exhibition in Saudi Arabia, won last year by Sinner in the final against Alcaraz. Millions of dollars in prize money are up for grabs, and the lineup includes Djokovic, Zverev, Draper, and Fritz. No ATP points.
- October 20-26 – ATP 500 Vienna: Sinner's presence confirmed, who will also play the Paris-Bercy Masters 1000 (October 27-November 2). For Alcaraz, the European calendar is still to be defined.
- November 9-16 – ATP Finals (Turin): Both teams have already qualified, but are in different groups. They could only meet in the semifinals or final.
- November 18-23 – Davis Cup Finals (Bologna): Italy has already qualified, while Spain will have to beat Denmark in the playoffs without Alcaraz.
When Sinner could return to number 1: the hypotheses
If the counter-overtaking doesn't happen by the end of 2025, the first real turning point will be in January. At the 2026 Australian Open, Sinner will have to defend the 2.000 points from last year's triumph, against Alcaraz's mere 400. But the key period will be between March and May 2026: due to the 3 month ban for the Clostebol caseThe Italian didn't play in 2025 and therefore won't have any points to defend. He can only earn points, while the Spaniard will have to confirm his impressive tally.
A scenario that makes it likely that Sinner will return to number 1 as early as spring 2026, when he will have fertile ground to exploit the calendar to his advantage.
