Donald Trump threatens to withdraw the United States from NATO, scolds Europe for spending too little on defense and pretends to impose his will on the allies, who immediately deny him. Not only that: the American President accuses Germany of being "prisoner" of Russia, but at the same time prepares Monday's bilateral with Vladimir Putin seeking an underground agreement with Moscow. It is a paradoxical scenario that delivered by the last Atlantic summit which was staged on Wednesday and Thursday in Brussels, but behind Trump's drama we can glimpse the plot of a strategy. What is the White House aiming for? And what will be the consequences for Europe? We talked about it with Stefano Silvestri, former president of the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), undersecretary of state for defense and adviser to the prime minister under various governments.
President Silvestri, is Trump's bluff or is it likely to think that the American military apparatuses would allow him to leave NATO?
«The impression is that we are facing a theatrical representation organized by Trump to exalt himself and obtain an advantage in domestic politics. The decision to leave NATO, shocking as it may be, would fall within the powers of the American President, but would be in stark contradiction with all the analyzes produced by the Pentagon on the assessment of risks for the United States, as well as with the affirmations of the Minister of Defense and the military leaders, who speak of Russia as the number one adversary. So if Trump withdrew the US from NATO he would deny the documents of his own administration ».
What is the truth about NATO funding? Trump claims victory, claiming to have convinced other countries to increase defense spending, but the allies deny it.
“Trump usually invents reality. Fortunately, so far he hasn't threatened to leave NATO if Europe doesn't give in on the commercial side, but he has limited himself to asking for higher defense spending. The Europeans confirmed the commitments already made, after which the American president cited the few increases in defense budgets that have taken place this year as his personal success. It is an imaginative reading of him.'
What is most striking is the display of aggressiveness against Europe in general and against Germany in particular. What is the real goal of the American President?
“Trump aims to weaken the European Union and put pressure on it from a commercial point of view. To achieve this, he chooses to hit Berlin above all. The real problem is that until now economic issues were secondary to solidarity from a strategic-defensive point of view, while with Trump this relationship seems to have reversed. If the USA continues to no longer recognize a common strategic interest and to condition defense to its own commercial interests, Atlantic solidarity will not be able to last. At that point, Italy will be forced to decide which side to take and this government will have to start thinking about security and foreign policy. Which he hasn't done so far."
But on July 30 Conte will visit the White House. Some argue that the Italian Prime Minister has replaced Macron as Trump's first European interlocutor. Is that so?
«Those who speak of a privileged axis between Italy and the United States work with imagination. So far, our government has not aligned itself with Trump's statements any more than other European countries have. We saw this precisely with the discussion on defense funds: Italy too has denied the American president, confirming the agreements already in force. I would be very cautious in thinking that our country could play the role of an autonomous ally of the United States".
Let's come to US-Russia relations. What do you expect from Monday's summit between Trump and Putin?
"I believe that Trump is aiming for a media success and that he will speak in very vague terms of a 'new understanding', a bit like he already did after his meeting with Kim Jong-un".
What could be the contents of a possible agreement?
«The American President has already said he is ready to give Crimea to Russia, which is unacceptable because such a decision does not fall within his powers and contradicts the decisions taken within the UN, the EU and also in the context of the transatlantic agreement between the United States and Europe. The problem now is understanding what Putin would give him in return. If the counterpart were not concrete and very important, for example a complete withdrawal from Ukraine or an agreement on Syria, Trump would find himself in a much more difficult situation than the one he had to face with North Korea ».
Do you mean from the point of view of international relations or on the domestic front?
«On both fronts, but above all on that of domestic politics, given that so far Congress - including the Republican side - while not directly denying Trump, has continuously reiterated its negative judgment on Moscow. All while the developments of Russiagate are still awaited».
In the end, who emerges victorious from all these contrasts is China?
«Yes, Beijing can only gain from such a situation. The United States is distracted and Trump seems to have forgotten the massive Chinese presence in Africa and the Mediterranean. He if he ever knew about it.'
The worst consequences seem to fall instead on Europe, already greatly weakened by its unresolved internal issues. In your opinion, what is the battlefield on which the EU runs the greatest risk of falling apart, migrants or the single currency?
«Fortunately, no one talks about the euro anymore: they've realized that questioning the currency area is pure madness. Now there is almost only talk of immigration, which at the moment is a non-existent problem, because it affects a few thousand people. The scale of the threat is just ridiculous compared to a few years ago."
From this point of view, the allies that Salvini has chosen in Europe – the German Seehofer and the Austrian Kickl, but also the Visegrad group – have interests opposite to those of Italy. How can this strategy be explained?
«Pure theater for electoral purposes. In reality, so far there have been no serious decisions and Italian foreign policy has not changed. Salvini presents himself as if he were not only Minister of the Interior, but also Prime Minister, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Defense. It may be that this is the case in the internal balance of the government. But so far, in concrete terms, I don't think so".
