"The danger of war is not imminent, but action must be taken to stem the growth of ISIS". How to do it explains it Stefano Silvestri, a great expert on international affairs and past president of the IAI (Istituto Affari Internazionali), who recognizes Italy's key role in relations with both sides of the Islamic world ("We have good relations with both Egypt and Turkey") , without however forgetting that "The UN and the European Union owe us solidarity: any type of intervention in Libya would require costs and a considerable deployment of resources and men".
A real war intervention, which would require a UN resolution (just yesterday France and Egypt requested an urgent meeting of the Organization), according to Silvestri is avoidable, despite the alarm raised by the Libyan prime minister recognized by the international community, Abdullah al-Thani: "Intervene immediately, otherwise the threat will reach Italy", said the leader of the North African country yesterday. “We mustn't exaggerate – explains the current director of AffarInternazionali, former consultant for the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense – in seeing in every event or in every statement an effective threat, but neither should we clearly underestimate. However, I can say that the situation has been exactly the same for months, there is no particular cause for alarm today”.
As said by the premier Matteo Renzi, who reiterated that "this is not the time for a military intervention", even for Silvestri the range of options includes other viable hypotheses, albeit very difficult ones. But Italy can play a decisive role, especially in the first possible strategy: the diplomatic one. “Mediating between the two souls of the Islamic world, that of the Muslim Brotherhood and that, so to speak, more secular of the Libyan government recognized by the international community, is not easy. These are opposing souls: the first is supported by Turkey, the second by Egypt. Two countries with which Italy has a good relationship”.
Libya is currently exactly split in half, with al-Thani at the head of the coalition of moderates (in the Parliament of Tobruk) and the militants of Ansar-al Sharia, who occupied Benghazi six months ago proclaiming the Islamic emirate in a part of the country , which now finds its seat in the old Parliament of Tripoli. Ansar al Sharia is headed by Al-Qaida and would now be declining, while the threat of terrorists close to the pseudo-caliphate is growing Daesh, which is nothing more than the Arabic acronym of Isis (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria). “The latter in particular seems to be growing, with the at least temporary conquest of an oil terminal and the recognition by the 'caliph' of his three Libyan Wilayat: Al-Barqah, in the east, Al-Tarabulus, in the west and Al-Fizan to the South”.
“The factions wage war against each other, but both are needed to build effective diplomatic action. It will be necessary to avoid – warns Silvestri – too ideologically motivated alliances, which could easily lead to a de facto partition of Libya into two or three territories, each one prey to its own local form of guerrilla warfare. As happened in Somalia”. In essence: collaborating with the moderate Islamists, who are headed by Egypt, to isolate the terrorists and stabilize the situation in Libya, but not neglect relations with the area of Muslim Brotherhood, which refer to Turkey, which, as Silvestri recalls, "has contributed to arming and politically supporting the Muslim Brotherhood of Misrata and Tripoli, even going so far as to highlight embarrassing proximity to the terrorists of Ansar Al-Sharia".
The second hypothesis is that of a military action, but strictly defensive. “In that case, the UN is not needed: it would involve targeted bombings, ad hoc landings against precise targets of organized crime. Here Italy could act autonomously, even if the international community, especially the'Europe, there should be solidarity”. Finally, again from a defensive and conservative point of view, there would also be the hypothesis of strictly controlling the Libyan border, especially the southern one where arms trafficking and the flow of militants are teeming. "It could also be appropriate - Silvestri argues -, in collaboration with Libya's neighboring countries, to intervene massively and/or selectively against groups of smugglers of arms and men and in general to block any uncontrolled cross-border flow".
Plausible solution, even if “it would inevitably also make it more difficult to distinguish between friends and enemies, with negative consequences for everyone. We'll see if we go one way or the other, or try some other. But one thing seems certain, it won't be possible to forget our old one again fourth shore. "
