It is not certain that today's Sicilian elections will be able to give a government to the Region, but certainly the result of the vote will weigh on the development of the national debate (also pre-election). Whether Nello Musumeci, the Storacian-Alfanian candidate of the right, prevails, or whether he succumbs in the challenge with Rosario Crocetta, the anti-mafia mayor of Gela today supported by the Democratic Party and the UDC, it will still be difficult to find a solid majority in the regional council . This for three reasons: 1) robust abstention is expected, probably accompanied by a consistent success of the five-star movement, in favor of which this time Beppe Grillo has spared no effort, including the physical-athletic one to swim across the Strait of Messina ; 2) these two factors (Grillo's success and abstention) will mean that the two major alignments will not be able to count on a large number of elected councilors to form a solid majority; 3) even the complicated electoral mechanism envisaged by the statute for the election of directors will not facilitate the identification of a clear and homogeneous majority. In short: the Sicilian elections will not end on Monday evening with the choice of the president.
If this is the general scheme in which the Sicilian vote is placed, it is in any case a common opinion that the presidency of the region will be played by two: Musumeci and Crocetta, who in these last hours of the electoral campaign have called each other out for good. The polls, the more or less official ones and those that even in these days, which should be without publishable tests, are whispered by the well-informed confirm a sprint finish. Musumeci headed the race and is still slightly ahead, Crocetta has always followed close behind and someone would like him to comeback in the last few hours.
The fact is that the alignments that support the two favorite candidates are anything but solid and consolidated. First of all, these are atypical alignments. Musumeci has the support of the Right and the PDL (above all the one identified with Schifani and Alfano), but at the same time he has to fear competition from Miccichè (the head of Forza Italia on the island at the time of 61 to 0) and above all the activism of the former president of the region Raffaele Lombardo, allied with Miccichè. As for Crocetta's Democratic Party, on the island it is allied with Casini and the UDC, with whom it has not found any agreement at national level. At the same time there is friendly fire from the Vendoliana left which supports Giovanna Marano, national secretary of the national Fiom.
So? In the end the match between Musumeci and Crocetta will be played on separate votes. These, if they existed, could favor Crocetta's comeback. In fact, strange rumors are circulating, for which Lombardo above all would have his candidates (including his son) vote for the regional council, but (thanks to the split vote) would shift a substantial number of votes for the presidency to Crocetta. It should not be forgotten that the Democratic Party has supported its junta, also paying a heavy price in terms of credibility towards Sicilian civil society. At the same time, on the left, the idea of a "useful vote" is making headway, which would be that for the competitive Crocetta, compared to the more characterized Marano. She also complained about the support given to Crocetta by the general secretary of the CGIL, Susanna Camusso.
As you can see, the confusion on the island is great. And this is certainly not new. However, the fact remains that this time the Sicilian vote will count above all at the national level, in view of the more demanding primaries of the centre-left and now also of the centre-right. A success by Musumeci would put a lot of wind in the sails of Angelino Alfano, until now the favorite candidate to succeed Berlusconi.
