La property, a scarcely monetizable but very reassuring treasure, no longer guarantees us as before; the reason? It is worth a trillion less than in 2011and an collapse of 20% it depreciated the homes of Italian families from 5300 trillion in 2011 to the current 4300 trillion.
The scope of the patrimonial loss – which can be reached by combining the Bank of Italy estimates on household wealth with those of Istat on house prices – is enormous. The 2016 was supposed to be the turning point, but it wasn't: if trading is slowly emerging from a multi-year paralysis, i prices still remain unchanged.
The real estate crisis and the recession have left the field dead and wounded. According to Bank of Italy data, between 2010 and 2014 a depreciate more as a percentage were: le principal residences of the wealthiest families (-23%) And those of unemployed and inactive non-retired people (-34%). Just the latter have often found themselves having to sell at discounted prices.
On the other hand it is the share of wealthy families owning homes has risenleaving room for one “oligarchy” of property owners: almost two thirds of the homes are owned by the 20% of the wealthiest.
Lo real estate shock it was caused by several factors. Next to the deflation of the speculative bubble and to effects of the economic crisis, you have to take into account the heavy property tax, introduced in late 2011. Since then the tax tightening on housing has caused revenue to skyrocket by 150% to 51 billion a year, and the exemption of the main residence has certainly not solved the problem.
To demonstrate how much a excessive taxation has contributed to depressing all values, Confedilizia cites the study by Oliviero and Scognamiglio; according to the two economists, in the past years the Municipalities without looming elections, where the Imu was raised to higher levels, have seen the price of real estate fall by 6% more than the Municipalities grappling with the vote and therefore with taxes lower.
According to economists and sociologists, the the long and generalized real estate shock had clear effects on household spending decisions; is the cd. “wealth effect” in a negative version: my house depreciates, I feel less guaranteed, consequently I will spend less.
A no more recent study by Bank of Italy ventures an estimate of how much a change in the real wealth of households can impact their consumption: three and a half cents more or less for every €100 of real estate appreciation or depreciation.
It is fair to say though that the fall in house prices also has its positive implications: if many families are forced to sell at a loss, many others can obviously afford to buy them. The trading game has started again, thanks also to the the fall in prices and mortgage rates and the rise in disposable income.
Se five years ago it took four years' salary to buy an average house, today three and a half are enough. The situation for younger couples is different: 60% of them still cannot afford a house, while the remaining 40% represents a record if we think that just a year ago potential young buyers did not exceed 30%.
