It is a gradual but fast approach to a zero CO2 world: the Sky scenery, what Shell proposes and which was presented in Rome on Wednesday. A scenario that makes it possible to achieve the objectives of the Paris agreements even if – its creators are the first to admit: “there is a lot of work to do”. Challenge and/or opportunity, reducing the global temperature by 2 degrees is feasible and we can go even further, the Sky report demonstrates. The tools are there, but to achieve them concretely, a collective synergistic effort is needed: industry, consumers, transport, political decision makers. Collegial action and a global mindset shift are needed to achieve success. The word failure, in this scenario, is not contemplated.
"The energy transition process - explained Marco Brun, president and CEO of Shell Italia - can be summarized in a concept: the coexistence of multiple energy sources, which will gradually move towards ever lower emissions, but which can and must coexist, especially for the coming decades. This is an essential condition for facing the epochal energy challenge we are experiencing”.
Knowing that the world is moving towards renewable sources and that in the transition, fossil fuels will also retain a place for a few decades, we come to the numbers that can allow us to reach zero net CO2 emissions in 2070.
- i peaks in oil demand begin to decline by the 2030s. By 2070, however, even if oil production remains steeply declining, a 50 million barrels a day (half today). Biofuels increasingly complement the liquid fuel mix.
- Il coal decreases rapidly, with the peak already behind us (in 2014)
- Il Natural gas plays an important role in the first decades in supplanting coal in power generation in support of the intermittence of renewable energy. Demand gradually begins to decline only after 2040.
In this scenario, the electrification of consumption estimated at 50% of final energy consumption at the end of the period plays a fundamental role.
In particular, by 2030 in the most advanced economies, 100% of new vehicles will have to be electric while in 2050 around 60% of the kilometers traveled globally will be powered by electric traction. For road freight transport, the route will be slower: 60% of the km traveled will be reached only in 2080. For aircraft and ships an important role is assigned to biofuels and hydrogen will enter the mix of liquid fuels from 2030.
These considerations are enough to concretely realize the steps that consumers and legislators must take to achieve the targets of the Paris Agreement. “The UK government supports these goals and is investing in innovation, technologies and infrastructure to make them possible,” said l'Ambassador Jill Morris which hosted the presentation of the report.
Beyond Brexit, environmental objectives therefore remain unchanged. AND Wim Thomas, Shell Chief Energy Advisor, curator of the Sky scenario points out not only that "the world is going in the opposite direction and that efficient use of energy translates into greater benefits for the community". But he also adds that "an acceleration is essential and that it will be necessary to find mechanisms to make the cost of the transition acceptable for consumers” who cannot only be imposed a carbon tax, as taught by the French revolt of yellow vests.
Shell has announced that within 15 years it intends to become the first producer and distributor of electricity in the world. A mutation in the transition which, too, has already begun. “We continue to invest in the traditional business of renewables and biofuels – added Marco Brun – but also in more innovative forms such as waste to fuel with agreements in Canada and India. As Italians – he continued – we recall the acquisition of Sonnen, manufacturer and installer of batteries for the storage and exchange of clean energy between connected customers. It is a novelty that will be very interesting to apply in Italy too when the regulators allow it"
The electricity sector is therefore becoming increasingly important in the Shell portfolio, the major well established in Italy also through the collaboration with Ferrari and Ducati.
“The premise – concludes Brun – is that the world will increasingly need energy. Without corrective measures, the requirement will increase six times compared to today. With very stringent energy efficiency policies it can go down to a doubling. The evolution proposed by Wim is an opportunity rather than a challenge”.
Lastly, hydrocarbons: there is no contradiction – says the Shell Italia top management – in combining traditional production with other innovative and sometimes futuristic ones. So space for photovoltaics but also for oil & gas fields. A statement that closely affects Italy, importer of 70% of the hydrocarbons it needs and exposed to geopolitical risks as demonstrated by the Libyan case.
"Maximizing natural resources - concludes Shell which is involved in Basilicata both in Val d'Agri and in Tempa rossa - would act in the opposite direction, as has also been seen in Norway". A clear reference to the blocked authorizations and perhaps also to the new policies of the penta-starred government which have frozen offshore introspections until a later date.
