days of violent clashes broke out late last week between the security forces and supporters of Ousmane Sonko, the 2024 presidential candidate and leader of the opposition PASTEF party sentenced on Wednesday May 31, 2023 in absentia to two years in prison for "corrupting youth".
Senegal: dead and wounded in the former beacon for democracy
Over 25 people were allegedly killed and hundreds more injured, while police arrested around 500 people in several cities. The riots are the worst in decades in a country often seen as a beacon for democracy and stability in the region.
Il government has restricted internet access and to social media and protesters erected roadblocks on major transportation routes. According to Human Rights' Africa “The recent deaths and injuries of protesters have set a worrying tone for the presidential election of 2024 and should be thoroughly investigated, the authorities should end the crackdown on protesters and critics and guarantee freedom of assembly." This condemnation and invitation to moderation was echoed in recent days by the spokesman of the secretary general of the United Nations Antonio Guterres, the regional bloc of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the chairman of the African Union Commission.
Senegal: the cause of the unrest
Sonko has firmly argued that the numerous criminal cases brought against him in recent years are politically motivated and are part of an effort by President Macky Sall's government to derail his 2024 candidacy. The conviction could prevent him from running in the next election. He was first indicted with the rape charge in March 2021 and faces several defamation charges and the various dates of his trials over the past two years have often been accompanied by outbursts of violence, even with deaths like the 5 in March 2021.
Wider tensions among the public have already been simmering as of late, amid speculation that Sall will seek a third term despite the country's two-term limit and its rapidly deteriorating popularity since the last election in 2019.
The underlying roots of the unrest are both political and socio-economic: theinflation Consumer price growth has slowed since the end of 2022, but is hovering around 9%, with food prices rising more than 11% year-on-year. Also transport costs, rents, electricity and fuel rates are still unaffordable for many Senegalese.
Even though the country's economy has grown at record rates on the back of massive investments in extractive sectors and infrastructure projects, including gas-fired and renewable power plants, the life condition of many people have not improved significantly. Many young urban dwellers feel socio-economically marginalized and are increasingly frustrated with a government they say is led by elderly and distant leaders, who have been too slow to soften the economic blow of the pandemic and the impact of the war in Ukraine.
Who is Ousmane Sonko?
It is this demographic that has gravitated towards Sonko, a former tax inspector and whistleblower who rose to prominence by exposing the offshore tax havens used by members of the Senegalese elite. He founded PASTEF (Patriotes africains du Sénégal pour le travail, l'éthique et la fraternité; African patriots of Senegal for work, ethics and fraternity), center-left orientation party 2014, and after the failure of his first presidential candidacy in 2019, he was elected mayor of the southern city of Ziguinchor in 2022.
He has since established one solid foundation in the south of the country, home to half of the country's agricultural and fishing resources and populated by the Diola, generally Christian and animistic, but who are only 5% of the population, in a country with an overwhelming Muslim majority even if of 4 different brotherhoods and among disillusioned voters from the socio-economic point of view in cities and industrial regions, especially young people.
The road to elections is increasingly impervious
If last week's conviction persists, Sonko could follow other opposition leaders such as Khalifa Sall (not a relative of the president) and Karim Wade, both convicted on charges of fraudulent use of funds ahead of the 2019 election and excluded from the application.
Some commentators have speculated that, in order to split the opposition vote in the 2024 election, President Sall could concede amnesty to some political leaders previously disqualified after apparent government suppression have galvanized opposition parties in recent years.
Sall was a longtime member of the Democratic Party of Senegal (PDS), centre-right liberal party. After conflicts with Wade over his wanting to extend presidential terms from two to three, he was removed from his post as Speaker of the National Assembly in November 2008; as a result he founded his own named party Alliance for the Republic (APR) and joined the opposition, presenting himself as a staunch defender of the two-mandate rule, which he has now renounced, however.
The threat of civil unrest will increase and be exacerbated by Sall's government efforts to limit opposition and freedom of expression but widespread incidents and rioting in major urban centers are expected in the event of Sonko's physical arrest or Sall's announcement that he will run as the reigning APR's candidate for a third term. A popular backlash to Sall's power-extending ambitions could scupper relations with the international investment partners, foreign donors and the IMF, whose support is needed to maintain fiscal stability, financial subsidies and debt servicing.
Senegal: oil and gas boost the economy
The prospects of medium-term economic growth of Senegal have improved on the back of a massive influx of new hydrocarbon investments, with several major projects of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil which should come into operation by the end of the year. This is based on recent discoveries that have ascertained oil reserves of over one billion barrels and gas of over 40.000 billion cubic feet.
One of the largest gas projects currently underway in Senegal is the LNG gas project Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA), located in the offshore waters straddling the Senegal-Mauritania border. This flagship project for Senegal is the deepest offshore project currently underway in sub-Saharan Africa. Large-scale commercial production of the GTA is expected to begin operating in the course of 2023.
For an IMF report, “In the short term, the debt sustainability will remain a primary concern as costly energy subsidies put the public budget under sustained strain,” but the government is unlikely to heed the IMF's advice to cut subsidies and is instead increasing spending for socio-economic aid that aims to increase its appeal ahead of the 2024 elections.
Last month the IMF and the Senegalese authorities agreed on a new one financing agreement 36-month period of approximately $1,526 billion combined with a $327,1 million Resilience and Sustainability Facility, conditioned on fiscal consolidation, strengthened governance and a framework for anti-money laundering and terrorist financing measures, as well as provide “a more inclusive and job-rich growth”.
The Washington-based organization predicted that the GDP growth non-hydrocarbon related in Senegal will reach 5,3% in 2023, down from an initial forecast of 6%. Total GDP growth could exceed 8% this year, if the aforementioned oil and gas production starts in the fourth quarter. It is also expected that the public debt will go down from 75% of GDP in 2022 to more sustainable levels in the coming years. The country's debt position is widely considered stable, with prospects deemed sustainable due to new hydrocarbon revenues expected by the end of the year.
