Halfway point with the plus sign for the European price lists and Piazza Affari pink jersey. In the first half of 2014, purchases rewarded the stock exchanges of the Old Continent supported by the liquidity flowing out of the emerging countries, by the intervention of the ECB and by the optimism on growth triggered by some timid signs of recovery. Thus Frankfurt rose by 4,42%, Paris by 4,9% and the Eurostoxx 50 by 7,9%. London was the exception, limiting gains to +0,59% despite the positive data released on the GDP front. However, the sprint came from the lists of peripheral countries: Piazza Affari drove the gains with +14,61%, closely followed by Madrid +12,29%. Athens also did well +5,43% while Lisbon defended itself with a +3% achieved while Portugal exited the 78 billion Troika plan and issued the first 10-year bond loans without the guarantee of a syndicate of banks. Overall, the stock exchanges of Milan, Madrid, Lisbon and Athens increased their capitalization by 150 billion euro in the six months. Across the ocean, Wall Street sustained optimism by stringing together record after record: if the Dow Jones index has posted a paltry +2,5% since the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 index has risen much more equal to 7% on all-time highs and the Nasdaq gains 6,5%. On average, all world stock markets grew by 2014% in the first half of 6,4.
Will the price lists be able to transform the first semester sprint into an entire year's marathon? To date, the stock exchanges have overcome the Ukrainian crisis and fluctuating macro data without too many jolts, with Italy also benefiting from the Renzi effect and the reduction of the spread below 160 basis points. But recently, growing concerns about growth and international tensions in Iran and Argentina have dampened the price run. The data released recently on US GDP for the first quarter froze expectations, indicating a drop of 2,9%. This is the worst result since 2009 which many have attributed to the difficult weather conditions of the period. In any case, the macroeconomic data released recently seems to have already convinced operators of a rebound in growth. In this scenario, the US central bank led by Janet Yellen continued as expected with the tapering while the president of the St. Louis Fed, James Bullard, predicted a rate hike as early as the beginning of 2015. In Europe, it is England that is already planning a leap forward on the cost of money: the governor of the Bank of England (BoE), Mark Carney, has warned everyone that starting from the end of this year or, at the latest, from the beginning of next year, the rates in the United Kingdom will be raised from the current 0,5% to around 2017% by 2,50.
Even in Italy the eyes are on the economic data: the wait for the reforms of the Renzi government has strengthened the hopes of a return to growth, giving impetus to Piazza Affari. The Milanese price list thus climbed back to 21 points, registering +14,6% (although it is still a long way from the March 2000 record of 50 points). In recent times, however, the Ftse Mib has also shown some signs of difficulty. The index closed its seventh session in the red yesterday (also conditioned by the start today of the tax increase on financial income). After some more encouraging timid signals, the market is waiting to understand when the economic recovery will materialize. Which for now does not seem to arrive. The latest data on GDP did not reassure: in the first quarter of 2014, the GDP turned negative again with a drop of 0,1% compared to the previous quarter which ended with growth of 0,1%. On an annual basis, the decline amounted to 0,5%. And just yesterday Istat revised downwards the previous estimates for growth in the second quarter indicating an expected cyclical variation between -0,1% and +0,3%. "The recovery of the pace of economic activity - he explained - should be more gradual than expected at the beginning of the year". In other words, after the negative figure for the first quarter, there is the risk that the Italian economy will return to recession, closing the second quarter in a row with contraction. Analysts for now say they are still positive, expecting growth for the second part of the year in the Milanese stock exchange between 5% and 10%.
To date, it has been the recovery of the banks that has pushed the Milanese list upwards, despite the bottleneck of capital increases that have swept through the sector in anticipation of the ECB's stress tests. The Bpm shone in particular with an increase of 60%, as well as Mps +30% and Ubi +28%. Intesa also did well +26% while further away we find Unicredit +13,4% and Banco Popolare +13,6%.
If we broaden our gaze to all listed stocks, some stocks achieved a monstrous performance: Monto TV +273%, Telecom Italia Media Savings +254%, Cobra +169%, Bastogi +145%, Bialetti +126%, Screen Service +108%, Venture +107%. At the bottom of the ranking are Yoox -39%, Brunello Cucinelli -35%, Kr Energy -32%. Among the major stocks, we also note the decline of Salini Impregilo -26,6%, Mondadori -26,3%, Tod's -23,2%.
The performance of 2014 also pushed many companies towards price lists. After the debuts at the beginning of the year on Aim, the "weight" quotations are arriving these days: from Cerved to Fineco, from Fincantieri to Sisal via the Rottapharm pharmaceutical company. And the list of aspiring freshmen is already long: the listings for the coming months promise to move around 10 billion in investments. Yet even here we see the first signs of tiredness: Fineco has had to set the price in the low end of the range while Fincantieri has even had to reduce the capital initially earmarked for listing.
